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674
FXUS61 KRLX 051618
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1218 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times this
weekend. Active weather continues into next week, with daily
chances for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 1035 AM Sunday...

Updated chances of precipitation and cloud cover based on latest
radar, satellite, and meso model trends.


As of 640 AM Sunday...

Minor changes made to PoPs to align with the current track of
showers in the area this morning. Otherwise, the forecast
generally remains on track.

As of 350 AM Sunday...

Showers and isolated storms continue to progress across the area as
a shortwave lifts northward early this morning. Some areas of
fog are also developing in locations where skies have at least
partially cleared and winds have calmed. Early morning fog
should dissipate later this morning.

A brief lull in precipitation may occur around daybreak, then activity
is expected to pick up once again as instability becomes
moderate to strong for the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a
strong system pivoting over Canada steers a cold front towards
the area. The front should reach the CWA late today and then
ease eastward overnight, with showers and storms remaining a
possibility out ahead of and along the front.

SPC has included the northwestern quadrant of the CWA in a
marginal severe weather risk for later today as isolated storms
be capable of producing damaging winds or perhaps hail. Heavy
downpours within storms could also cause localized flash
flooding if they occur over locations that have already been
subjected to high rainfall amounts.

High temperatures for today are expected to range from mid 70s
to low 80s in the lowlands and 60s to 70s in the mountains.
Temperatures will then lower back into the 50s to 60s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1217 PM Sunday...

Severe weather will be possible across parts of the area Tuesday.
SPC currently has portions of southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky and
western West Virginia outlooked in a slight risk of severe weather.
Models suggest that all severe hazards will be possible, but the
greatest threat may be damaging wind gusts. DCAPE values may exceed
1,000 J/kg, MUCAPE values look to exceed 2,000 J/kg, 0-6 km mean
wind looks to be around 25 kts, and the effective bulk wind
difference should be 25-30 kts. All of these parameters point toward
a possible damaging wind threat with thunderstorms on Tuesday. PWATs
are expected to be from 1.50-1.75", so flooding downpours will also
be possible in thunderstorms.

Another severe weather threat will exist Wednesday. The main severe
risks on Wednesday appear to be damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Forecast soundings show a large layer of mid-level dry air Wednesday
afternoon, which would be conducive to hail development and damaging
wind potential. SPC currently has portions of northeast Kentucky,
southeast Ohio and extreme western West Virginia outlooked in a 15%
risk for severe weather Wednesday (day 4).

The intensity of any thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons
will depend on how well the atmosphere destabilizes after prior
morning convection. In addition, the ground is becoming more
saturated due to recent convective activity over the past couple of
days. Any thunderstorms that move over saturated ground may lead to
flooding.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1218 PM Sunday...

A cold front will pass through the region Friday morning, and the
severe weather threat should diminish heading into next weekend as
cooler, more stable air funnels in behind the front. However,
showers will remain possible through the weekend with lingering
energy aloft. With the ground becoming increasingly saturated due to
recent convective activity, we may still have to keep an eye on the
threat of flooding heading into the end of the week. Confidence is
low at this time, so stay tuned for more details over the coming
days as the picture becomes clearer. Temperatures will be much
cooler Friday through next weekend, with highs only expected to be
in the 50s (mountains) and 60s to lower 70s (lowlands).
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 640 AM Sunday...

Restrictions due to valley fog and some low stratus along the
mountains are expected to improve early this morning while a
lull in precipitation occurs. Shower and storm activity should
increase again during the day, with most robust storms
occurring this afternoon and evening. Isolated storms could be
capable of producing strong wind gusts or hail. While VFR is
generally expected outside of any convection today, periodic
reductions to MVFR/IFR will be possible during heavier downpours
or storms. Precipitation continues into tonight as a cold front
eases across the area, then flight conditions may deteriorate
in low clouds or fog late in the TAF period.

5-12kt winds are expected to veer from southerly to a
west/southwest direction during the day. Winds become light and
variable for tonight.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation may vary from the
forecast today. MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions are possible in
heavier showers or any storms. Extent/intensity of restrictions
due to fog/stratus tonight may also vary.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible at times in showers and thunderstorms
into mid next week. Fog and/or low stratus are possible Monday
night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB/JMC
NEAR TERM...RPY/JLB
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JLB