Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240615 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 215 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Slow moving storm system approaches with rain lingering through midweek. Weak high pressure for the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 200 AM Tuesday... I`ve allowed the wind advisory to expire on time as winds have been below criteria. Having said that, I still expect some decent gusts into mid morning given the stout LLJ in place. I issued an SPS to highlight this in the areas that were previously in the advisory. The slow moving upper level low will continue to pivot toward the area today, passing just south of the area tonight. Bands of showers will continue to be the rule as a result. I included some thunder across southwest Virginia this afternoon, though instability is meager. Highs were nudged toward a cooler consensus across southeast Ohio, with the mildest readings likely in our banana belt region along the westward facing slopes, courtesy of strong southeast downsloping flow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 PM Monday... By Tuesday night, a closed low aloft will be located nearly overhead. Its associated, southern stream low pressure system will impact the area in the form of gusty rain showers through Tuesday night and will pivot out of Central Appalachia Wednesday afternoon as it travels toward the coastal Mid-Atlantic and northeastern states. Although rain showers will be common across the area, they should remain light with minimal risk for flooding. The best moisture exists further to our South and East in the Smokey Mountains and areas of the Piedmont - meanwhile we are limited to about 1" PWAT, at maximum, in this area. Expect widespread rainfall amounts up to 0.25", with higher amounts up to 0.75" possible in the eastern mountains - closer to the track of the low. Widespread cloud cover greatly limits the amount of instability we can muster, so have opted to leave thunder out of the forecast at this time. Wednesday night, the low pulls away toward the NE with weak high pressure building into the area from the West. Rain showers will taper through the night from West to East before drying entirely early Thursday. Temperatures remain seasonable through the period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM Monday... Weak high pressure erodes Thursday night with another southern stream system and short wave approaching. The southern low creeps up the Piedmont Friday and has potential to generate showers along our eastern mountains. However, long-range models are trending further East with the system which would leave those areas dry. Confidence is therefore low in that portion of the forecast. Meanwhile, a digging trough across the Mississippi Valley approaches Friday with a mostly-dry cold front. This front will interact with the southern system Friday night through early Saturday, generating light shower activity across the bulk of the area, especially in areas toward the North. Then, the larger digging trough absorbs the southern system and kicks the entire mean trough East by mid-Saturday. Ridging aloft and high pressure builds for the remainder of the weekend with clearing and warming conditions into the next work week. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 200 AM Tuesday... Upper low will continue to approach the area today, passing south of the region tonight. This will continue to allow bands of showers to pivot through the area today. VFR conditions should hold for the most part today outside of BKW, though some tempo MVFR vsby was coded up 12 to 15Z in showers. Cigs will gradually lower later today and this evening across southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, and western West Virginia as the upper low closes in. This will result in MVFR bases overspreading the lowland terminals this evening and IFR overnight, though CKB/EKN likely stiff arming this until very late tonight. BKW will see their cigs lower into low end MVFR or high end IFR today, lowering even more so this evening. Strong southeast flow just off the deck will persist today, resulting in 20 to 25 kt surface winds at EKN/BKW with gusts to 35 kts at times. Elsewhere, winds will be significantly less, thanks in part to a more stable boundary layer. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR conditions will likely vary from current forecast tomorrow. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 04/24/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H M L M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H L M L AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR conditions possible Tuesday night in light to moderate rain.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...30

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