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000
FXUS61 KRLX 172321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
721 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms possible through tonight in the midst
of a passing cold front. Another round of showers and storms
Friday morning with a cold front, cooler this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 702 PM Wednesday...

Updated POPs to better represent the current situation and
ongoing activity to the north along southeast Ohio and northern
WV. Took out chances across the mountains for now since nothing
came to fruition from that was boundary draped across the
mountains. As of now, the forecast is on track and no other
modification were done to it at this time.

As of 357 PM Wednesday...

Tornado Watch #123 has been issued and is in effect for
southeast Ohio and northern WV counties in the CWA. With the
support of a llj along with plenty of wind shear and instability
the environment for possible tornadoes is favored at this time.
Helicity is marginal but enough, ML LCL are right at the
marginal level as well, but you have the other severe indices
that are elevated and enough to promote this type of near term
environment not too mention good vertical growth.

As of 1255 PM Wednesday...

Active weather is quickly getting underway upstream to our west
along a cold front. Mesoanalysis shows a ribbon of strong
instability where convective initiation is transpiring at the
time of writing, along the Ohio and Indiana state lines. Daytime
heating once again contributes to convective development, where
temps in the 70s/80s, coupled with dewpoints in the low 60s,
will allow for blossoming convection that may advertise strong
to severe conditions through this evening.

Storms will progress in an east-northeast fashion through the
course of the afternoon into tonight, approaching our
northwestern zones shortly after 5 PM, then grazing the northern
flank of the forecast area this evening as the front charges
eastward.

A Tornado Watch was hoisted up for parts of the Ohio
Valley at the time of writing amid this swath of favorable low
level shear and instability. This will certainly be something
to monitor downstream for our area later on this afternoon in
the event convective trends exude a similar environment,
especially as peeks of sunshine slip through the stratus field,
per satellite imagery. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are
the biggest concerns as storms travel into the Ohio River
Valley. One thing that is different from yesterday`s convection
is that the shear component is noted today, imposing the tornado
risk alongside the aforementioned hazards. Localized hydro
concerns may also be present within heavier downpours.

The front is slated to cross through late tonight into early
Thursday morning, with precipitation wrapping up along the
mountains around dawn. A drier day is on tap for Thursday in
response to brief ridging aloft. Temperatures remain above
normal for this time of year, but will fall a few degrees short
of both yesterday`s and today`s highs.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Wednesday...

Cold front approaches from the west Thursday night with PoPs
gradually increasing from west to east after 11 PM. Warm sector
looks to be in play for Friday with 70s across the lowlands and
60s in the mountains.

Thunderstorm activity will be in the cards for Friday, due to
forcing, as the cold front moves through Friday morning and
afternoon. Severe weather does look to be a factor at this
time, but strong storms could be possible. Showers will start
to taper off during the evening hours, making for a segue into
to a dry Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Wednesday...

The weekend looks to be on the cooler side, but mostly dry, as
the area will be under the influence of high pressure post
FROPA. Weekend high temperatures will be in the high 50s and 60s
across the lowlands, with the mountains staying down in the 40s
to the low 60s. Dry weather will be in place Saturday until
Sunday morning, where a slight chance of showers and storms are
possible across the southwestern VA and eastern WV mountains.
Patchy frost looks possible Sunday night, especially across the
northern WV lowlands/mountains and across southeast OH.

Next week looks to show a gradual warming trend with a system
affecting the area Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 720 PM Wednesday...

FROPA is tonight with thunderstorm activity associated ahead of
it to our northern tier. This will place TS activity into the
TAFs for the northern sites but will only go through the evening
hours into early tonight, before midnight. The rest of the
sites are placed in a VCTS category with possible activity as
the front passes through. Any activity is on the low side of
probability for the southern sites. CIGs/VIS should
predominately stay VFR, however under a shower/TS then MVFR or
worse restrictions may occur temporarily. After midnight maybe
some shower activity in the northeast mountains affecting
CKB/EKN although the probability is low at this time.
Thereafter, clouds start to cleat out by morning with mostly
clear skies during the afternoon with dry and settled weather.
Winds will be on the lighter side tomorrow with low, less than
15KT gusts in the forecast.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms could vary.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 THU
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
Spotty IFR possible along the mountains on Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/LTC
NEAR TERM...JZ/MEK
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JZ