Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240648 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 248 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Slow moving storm system approaches with rain lingering through midweek. Southern system may graze the area late Thursday into Friday. Cold front Friday night or Saturday. High Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Tuesday... I`ve allowed the wind advisory to expire on time as winds have been below criteria. Having said that, I still expect some decent gusts into mid morning given the stout LLJ in place. I issued an SPS to highlight this in the areas that were previously in the advisory. The slow moving upper level low will continue to pivot toward the area today, passing just south of the area tonight. Bands of showers will continue to be the rule as a result. I included some thunder across southwest Virginia this afternoon, though instability is meager. Highs were nudged toward a cooler consensus across southeast Ohio, with the mildest readings likely in our banana belt region along the westward facing slopes, courtesy of strong southeast downsloping flow. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 240 AM Tuesday... Showers will tapper off by late Wednesday as the upper low moves off to the east. Considerable differences exists with the next system late Thursday into Friday. GFS is much further north than other models and would require much higher pops. With other models in relatively decent agreement, will discount the GFS for now, but will need to keep an eye on this system.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 240 AM Tuesday... Models showing a cold front or two for Friday night and Saturday. While models agree on the general pattern, there are differences in the timing and amount of moisture available to the fronts. A high pressure system will then build in and provide dry weather for the rest of the weekend and into the next work week.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 AM Tuesday... Upper low will continue to approach the area today, passing south of the region tonight. This will continue to allow bands of showers to pivot through the area today. VFR conditions should hold for the most part today outside of BKW, though some tempo MVFR vsby was coded up 12 to 15Z in showers. Cigs will gradually lower later today and this evening across southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, and western West Virginia as the upper low closes in. This will result in MVFR bases overspreading the lowland terminals this evening and IFR overnight, though CKB/EKN likely stiff arming this until very late tonight. BKW will see their cigs lower into low end MVFR or high end IFR today, lowering even more so this evening. Strong southeast flow just off the deck will persist today, resulting in 20 to 25 kt surface winds at EKN/BKW with gusts to 35 kts at times. Elsewhere, winds will be significantly less, thanks in part to a more stable boundary layer. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR conditions will likely vary from current forecast tomorrow. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 04/24/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H M L M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H L M L AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR conditions possible Tuesday night in light to moderate rain. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30

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