Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250618 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 218 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Upper level trough brings showers and storms on today. Unsettled weather through the weekend with afternoon showers and storms. High pressure and decent weather for Memorial Day, but more unsettled conditions should return by mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 145 AM Friday... Really not too much of a change from the afternoon forecast cycle. Still appears that a weak short wave will push through from south to north this afternoon and evening. Only expecting some scattered shower or storm activity with this feature, with the most activity focused around max heating this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 217 AM Friday... For Saturday, moisture advection continues under southerly flow as suggested by models in the theta-e charts. Bufkit soundings suggest an almost saturated column with a tall skinny CAPE feature with equilibrium level up to 40,000 feet. PWATs will increase around 1.88 inches. Therefore, expect water loading with a poor shear environment Saturday afternoon. Overall, scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, some with brief heavy downpours, are expected to develop. The SREF/NAM/ECMWF concord on increasing moisture and pcpn activity. Several upper level ripples of vorticity will cross the area through at least Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely during the afternoons aided by the diurnal heating and abundant moisture through the beginning of the week. On Sunday, an air mass with tropical moisture will lift north and northeast from the Gulf of Mexico into AL, TN, WV and KY. Models show some disagreement on the actual track of the remnants of this tropical system.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 217 AM Friday... The remnants of a tropical system will gradually decay Monday. The associated moisture and afternoon heating will produce afternoon showers and storms. A cold front will try to sink through Monday night into Tuesday. Its timing could change as models do not resolve this feature well. By mid to late week, remnants of the tropical system pass by to our south, with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. There will be plenty of moisture to work with, and periods of heavy rain could occur. Flooding potential will depend on the track of the system and how much rainfall is accumulated from the showers and storms earlier in the week.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 115 AM Friday... Low level looks like it will be strong enough through the early morning hours to hinder fog development. Mostly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, but there is a chance for isolated to scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms. A weak upper level disturbance passes the region, but as of now it appears that shower activity will be most pronounced across the southern forecast area. Will also have to watch low level SE flow this morning as some upslope stratocu could bring a brief period of ceilings to BKW this morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR stratocu may get close to BKW for a time early Friday morning. Some showers could bring restrictions if they pass directly over a site. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/25/18 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK

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