Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281804 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 204 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure prevails today. Mid level disturbance brings rain across the north, switching to upslope snow across the northeast mountains tonight into Friday morning. Dry but windy Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1120 AM Thursday... Few low level diurnal cu clouds developed late this morning. Expect afternoon clouds to dissipate around sunset. Previous forecast remains on track. As of 705 AM Thursday... The forecast is on track. As of 245 AM Thursday... A dry day is on tap today with high pressure nearby to the southwest. There is enough low level moisture in place, though, for stratocumulus in cold advection upslope flow ahead of the high, mainly in and near the mountains. Dry advection and cessation of cold advection should allow these clouds to break up later this morning, mainly after sunrise. In the meantime, high clouds associated with a southern stream low pressure system along the east coast will move east, out of the area this afternoon, as the low moves offshore. As the mid-upper level short wave trough associated with the coastal low moves south of the area today, and then offshore tonight, a northern stream mid-upper level short wave trough crosses the forecast area late this afternoon into tonight. This will be followed by warm advection in what becomes fast, deep layer west to northwest flow once the short wave passes tonight. The warm advection will re-introduce stratocu across northern portions of the area overnight tonight, and even rain and snow showers in the northern and central mountains with cloud top temperatures around -12C up around h7. There could even be rain showers or sprinkles out across the northern lowlands before dawn Friday. The surface pressure gradient will increase across southern portions of the area tonight, but the height gradient aloft will tighten up throughout the area. This could lead to wind gusts approaching 40 mph across the highest ridges toward dawn Friday. Central guidance temperatures appeared to be on or close, with highs a little below normal today, and lows near normal tonight. With the return of dry weather, RH values drop into the 20s this afternoon, amid a bit of a breeze and drying fuels, which lowered toward 10 percent Wednesday, before rising well into the teens overnight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Thursday... There remains a slight chance for some snow showers along the mountains early Friday, but no accumulations are expected as low temperatures won`t be cold enough for very long in the morning to allow for abrupt or instantaneous accumulation. Models show a deepening, negative tilt trough off of the Mid- Atlantic/New England coast. There will also be an area of surface high pressure to our southwest which will continue to move into the area keeping us dry and mostly clear Friday afternoon. The combination of these two pressure gradients will create breezy to gusty conditions across the forecast area Friday. Conditions will be particularly gusty across the mountains where gusts will likely reach advisory criteria. Temperatures still look to be in the mid to high 60s across the lowlands with cooler 50s and lower 60s across the mountains. Friday night`s lows drop back into the 40s, with some 30s possible across the higher elevations. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 AM Thursday... The long-term period looks to be quite uniform as it will be characterized by wet weather and warm temperatures, most if not, each day starting Saturday. This can be owed to a few swift moving, flat wave disturbances that will move through this weekend, followed by a strong cold front that will move through Wednesday. Rainfall chances arrive Saturday late morning into the afternoon, but QPF looks light as rainfall will be more showery in nature. Rainfall will increase in earnest come Monday as a stationary front will move over the area allowing for more widespread coverage in rainfall, as well as chances for thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 203 PM Thursday... Widespread VFR conditions to prevail for most sites through the period. The exception will be CKB, EKN, and BKW where light rain/snow showers will be possible during the overnight hours. However, expect brief periods of MVFR over these sites with possible IFR under snow showers. Conditions will return to VFR Friday morning. Northwest surface flow will become gusty tonight especially across the higher elevations. This will again preclude any nocturnal fog development. Light to gentle winds aloft this afternoon and evening become moderate to strong tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain/snow reaching the northeast terminals may vary from forecast. Winds will vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... As of 245 AM Thursday... Building high pressure will bring a mainly dry finish to the work week amid near seasonable temperatures. Relative humidity values lower into the 25-30 percent range across the lowlands and 25 to 45 percent range across the mountains this afternoon, but under a generally light breeze as fuels continue to dry. Fuel moisture lowered toward 10 percent Wednesday, before rising well into the teens overnight. The NFDRS fuel moisture forecast for today is up around 10 percent for the lowlands and in the teens in the mountains. Friday afternoon will be on the breezy side amid relative humidity values in the 30-40% range. The chance for showers returns this weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...ARJ FIRE WEATHER...

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