Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 170538 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 138 AM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold air surging in behind a cold front, with snow showers. Mid April freeze expected tonight. Another cold front moves through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 135 AM Tuesday... Cold air advection continues through mid morning, especially across the north, so have lingered isolated to scattered snow showers through around 18Z across the lower elevations of the northern forecast area, and until just after 00Z in the mountains. Farther south and west, have snow showers tapering off early this morning with just some lingering flurries through mid morning. Clouds will gradually lift and break up from south to north through the day. A warm front begins moving in from the SW tonight, have have some very low end POPs developing in the central mountains after midnight. It looks like temperatures will be warm enough for this to be light rain, but did include some flakes initially.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday... Lingering low-level moisture sourced from the Great Lakes region continues to generate a few additional flakes in the north central mountains late Tuesday, however this will taper off entirely by around midnight. Then, models consistently show light rain showers associated with a warm front impacting the central and northern portions of the area early Wednesday morning - accumulations would be insignificant, but would favor the mountain areas with the additional upslope component. Have included this as slight chance and low-chance PoPs across the higher elevations. SW flow takes hold Wednesday with a decent warming trend making for lowland highs around 70, mountains around 60, during the afternoon. A compact, digging closed-low trough scoots across the southern Great Lakes region through the end of the period before being ingested into a larger mean trough over the Eastern CONUS. The cold front associated with this comes through Thursday night with widespread rain showers - some snow may work in across the mountains with loss of solar insulation and CAA reinforcement. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 PM Monday... Cooler conditions with a drying trend are forecast Friday as deep NW flow takes hold behind an eastern seaboard trough. Some light snow showers are possible in the normal upslope areas Friday morning. Then, high pressure builds across the Great Lakes region this weekend with a gradual warming trend Saturday and Sunday. The next system is fairly uncertain in terms of impacts and timing - a cut off low is clearly evident and agreed-upon across long-range models and tracks across the central US throughout the long-term period, however some models ingest the system into the westerlies in our area while others keep the system to the South and thus we`d be dry and cool. Have included slight chance to chance PoPs primarily in the southern zones and in the mountains to account for this uncertainty and won`t hedge far from a consensus blend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 135 AM Tuesday... Cold air advection continues to drive snow showers through. For most areas expect VFR to MVFR in these, but could see periods of IFR across the mountains in the heavier showers. Clouds will gradually lift and break up through the day...beginning at MVFR initially and becoming VFR from south to north. Winds will remain rather gusty through today, and then diminish tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions in snow could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 04/17/18 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M H H M H M M H L HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H M M M H L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M L L L L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY L M M H L L L M M H L L CKB CONSISTENCY M L M H H H L H L L L L AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Widespread IFR conditions are not expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>031. OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/MC NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...MZ

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