Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241820 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 220 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upper level disturbances return Friday. Upper level short wave trough pulls tropical system north out of the Gulf, to produce unsettled weather into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 205 PM Thursday... Quiet forecast for mid to late May on the front end of the near term. Expecting mainly clear skies through tonight and temperatures back down into the upper 50s/lower 60s for the lowlands and lower 50s for the mountains. Clouds increase from south to north tomorrow as the mid level moisture depth returns to the region while the upper level ridge begins to deteriorate. Weak waves aloft will advect from the south into the southern zones, triggering showers and a few storms during prime heating hours, putting the CWA back into the general thunderstorm risk area from SPC. Temperatures on the increase with mid to upper 80s dominating the lowlands, and the stray 90F is not out of the question from the Kanawha/Tug Fork valleys into the Tri State area. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Thursday... While we won`t see constant showers and storms through the period, we are in the moisture stream coming off the Gulf so have at least low end POPs throughout. Aloft, initially we will be on the western side of a ridge, but several ripples will pass through as a trough begins moving into the Great Lakes. Have the highest POPs late Saturday into Saturday night as this upper trough passes by. For Sunday, we start to see a bigger influence from a tropical system approaching the Gulf Coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 220 PM Thursday... The bulk of the long term is dominated by the gradually decaying tropical system drifting through the southern states and an upper level low/trough coming out of the Great Basin and crossing the northern US Rockies. While we are on the fringe of both of these systems early in the week, we will still have plenty of moisture and enough upper level impulses crossing to keep POPs going. A cold front will try to sink through Monday night into Tuesday, but have some uncertainty on how far it will make it with the Gulf system still over the lower Mississippi Valley. By mid to late week, models show the surface remnants of the tropical system passing by to our south, with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. There will be plenty of moisture to work with, so periods of heavy rain are expected. Flooding potential will depend on the track of the system and how much rainfall is accumulated from the showers and storms earlier in the week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM Thursday... VFR. FEW/SCT cumulus field will dissipate this evening. Model soundings not depicting fog tonight, nor is the LAMP guidance, and will leave it out of the forecast. Mid level moisture increases from the south, encroaching the southern mountains and KBKW by 18Z Friday. Winds less than 10kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...26

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