Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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807 FXUS61 KRLX 171955 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 355 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will move northward through the area tonight and Wednesday. Another cold front moves through Wednesday night into Thursday, with upslope snow for Thursday night into early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 PM Tuesday... A warm front to our south will move northward through the area overnight and into Wednesday. Clouds will generally clear from south to north initially overnight. Some clouds will again overspread the area associated with the warm front. Kept area dry as moisture is lacking with the warm front, just expecting some clouds. Temperatures overnight will be tricky with clouds clearing at first south. Clouds north will take some time clearing out and thus should keeps temperatures from falling too much. WSW winds will stay up initially with the gradient between the warm front and the exiting upper low, before dropping off during the overnight. Uncertainty with the clouds and winds, have decided not to go with any frost/freeze warning tonight. As the upper Mid West Low tracks into the great lakes tomorrow, it`s trailing cold front will be approaching from the west. Southerly flow out ahead of the cold front will push temperatures into the 70s in the lowlands..with mainly upper 50s and 60s elsewhere. Clouds increase as well as pops from west to east during the afternoon tomorrow with the cold front. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 330 PM Tuesday... A cold front from the West approaches Wednesday night with rain showers. The front reaches the Ohio River by around midnight, and is entirely passed the CWA by daybreak Thursday. This fast moving system only manages to eke out 0.25" or so of rainfall as it passes through the lowlands by mid- Thursday. After a lull in precipitation, low- to mid-level winds will back toward the NW in the CAA regime Thursday afternoon and turn the upslope snow machine on in the mountains of West Virginia. Overall, temperatures will be marginal to too-warm until sundown and ground temperatures will greatly limit accumulations - however abundant moisture and NW flow, plus the fact that snow will be prevalent during the overnight hours, mean minor accumulations are possible by Friday morning. Fairly strong winds are likely with this quick-hitting system, with mountain gusts in the mid-30`s knot range and lowlands in the 15-20 kt range. High pressure builds from the northwest Friday and will gradually dry the mountains up and clear skies through the day.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 345 PM Tuesday... Gradual warming takes place under dry, weak high-pressure conditions through the weekend and into the work-week. Lowland highs near 60 (mtns near 50) on Saturday increase to near 70 (mtns near 60) by Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cut-off low aloft and its associated surface low/rain showers lurk to our South... however models agree today, unlike yesterday, that the system will stay to the South, and thus have stuck with the consensus- blend of low-PoPs until some slight-chance noses into the SE Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 250 PM Tuesday... Winds will remain rather gusty through the rest of this afternoon as an upper low exits and a warm front approaches, and then diminishes overnight. Any Snow showers from PKB/CKB/EKN line will also diminish this afternoon. MVFR cigs/vsbys in snow showers will eventually become VFR for all taf sites after 00Z. VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight hours and early Wednesday morning hours. Warm front to move through the region overnight some mid to high clouds will be associated with it as it passes. Clouds will continue to increase from the west to east during the day tomorrow as a cold front approaches from the west. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions in snow could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L M L M H L L H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Widespread IFR conditions are not expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MC NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...JS

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