Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251841 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 241 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level trough Saturday. High pressure and decent weather for Memorial Day, but more unsettled conditions should return by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 PM Friday... Cumulus field is building this afternoon, but from visible satellite imagery, it is apparent that the relatively shallow saturated layer is having a head time feeding vertical development. Some small showers have popped over the Tug Fork Valley, and expect more coverage, especially in the mountains over the next few hours this evening. Some thunder is possible, but again, the dry air in the mid levels is going to be inhibitive to a large degree. Higher dewpoints are leading to milder overnight lows tonight. Expect an increase in rain chances early Saturday with the approach of the open wave aloft moving into the middle Ohio Valley, so the increase in POPs is not completely dependent on heating tomorrow. Coverage should increase with the added instability and moisture depth increases region wide. Lots of general thunder potential for the entire eastern third of the CONUS on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 240 PM Friday With a good feed of Gulf moisture and an upper level trough moving through, expect showers and thunderstorms to drift through Saturday night and Sunday. By Sunday night, and especially Monday, we are in the dead area between the northern and southern streams which should limit showers and storms. Still, with decent moisture kept some low end POPs in, mainly across the south and east. Temperatures will remain above normal. Stuck close to a consensus blend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 240 PM Friday... The pattern is a bit messy for the long term. Initially a cold front will try to sink in from the north while the remnants of what becomes of sub-tropical storm Alberto begin moving north out of the Gulf. Run-to-run and model-to-model consistency is rather low on the evolution of this resulting in minimal confidence. Due to this, stuck very close to a consensus blend which brings slightly higher POPs each day Tuesday through Thursday as the remnants drift through. The threat for flooding and strong to severe storms will highly depend on the track of these features. Continued showers and storms are possible Friday with an upper level system somewhere in the Great Lakes region. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 PM Friday... Coverage of showers will increase over the next 3 to 6 hours as heating peaks, but only carrying prevailing SHRA at BKW. Lower chances elsewhere make prevailing a risky bet at this time. The chance for thunder is also on the lower side, so no mention in the TAF for this as well. AMDs possible as convection patterns form. EKN being hit hard for fog tonight by the LAMP guidance but lower everywhere else, and will ride this data for this issuance. If any terminal gets appreciable rain, that fog forecast potential for the overnight will need to be revisited. Winds remain under 10kts through the period. Rain/thunder chances increase on Saturday towards 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Terminals that get rain see brief IFR. May need to add TSRA for isolated/scattered cells. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/25/18 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...26

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