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000
FXUS61 KRLX 201818
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
218 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry this weekend, then slowly warming through Tuesday
ahead of another cold front that brings wet weather back to the
area Tuesday night. Widespread frost possible Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1030 AM Saturday...

Made minor modifications to cloud cover over the next several
hours across far southern WV and southwest VA, where BKN-OVC
mid/upper level clouds have lingered longer than originally
anticipated. Otherwise, the forecast largely remains on track.

Do anticipate RH values dipping into the mid 20s to low 30s
across much of the forecast area this afternoon amid breezy
conditions at times. Given prior rainfall across the area over
the past few days, the only real area of concern in terms of
elevated fire danger would be across extreme southern OH and far
northeast Kentucky. However, given progressive green up across
the region and marginal fuel moisture this afternoon, do not
anticipate needing a SPS for the aforementioned areas.

As of 608 AM Saturday...

Satellite imagery shows clear skies spreading from west to east
early this morning. Previous forecast remains on track.

As of 230 AM Saturday...

Surface high pressure builds in from the west, pushing remnants
light showers east of the Appalachians this morning. Much
fresh/colder air filters in, bringing plenty of sunshine and
pleasant temperatures for Saturday, generally in the 60s across
the lowlands, ranging to the upper 40s higher elevations.

With brief afternoon gusty winds, mixing will drop relative humidity
values into the upper 20s to lower 30s areawide. RHs recovers to
over 50 percent after midnight tonight.

For tonight, a relaxed pressure gradient provides light to calm
winds. Models suggest cold air in place with the minus 5C line
arriving to our northern sections tonight. Combined with mostly
clear skies, radiational cooling effects could drop temperatures
into the mid to lower 30s across the area. This will promote
patchy frost mainly across the northern lowlands late tonight
into Sunday morning. However, a southern stream mid-level
shortwave lifts northeast across northeast KY and southern WV,
late tonight bringing abundant clouds for these areas. These
clouds may keep areas of frost to become widespread, or even to
develop. Will continue to mention in HWO as confidence runs low
at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 215 PM Saturday...

Key Messages:
* Quiet start to the work week.
* Widespread frost possible early Monday morning.

Dry weather is expected for Sunday night as high pressure
builds in from the southwest. With low temperatures projected
to dip into the upper 20s to mid 30s late Sunday night into
early Monday morning, widespread frost and patchy freeze will
be a concern for much of the area in which the growing season
has begun.

High pressure continues to build into the area on Monday, with
dry conditions likely allowing RH to fall into the 20-40% range
during the afternoon. Quiet weather then persists into Monday
night as high pressure starts sliding east in advance of the
next system. Temperatures should remain cooler than normal
during the day, with highs reaching 60s in the lowlands and
upper 40s to low 60s along the mountains. Monday night is
expected to be a few degrees warmer than the night before,
though some patchy frost is a possibility towards daybreak
Tuesday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 215 PM Saturday...

Key Messages:
* Cold front brings showers and a few storms Tuesday into Wednesday.
* Drier Wednesday night into Friday.
* Another system approaches late week into next weekend.

A low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes region pivots
east along the Canada/US border and ushers a cold front towards the
area on Tuesday. After a fairly quiet morning, precipitation chances
spread southeast across the area in response to the approaching
front. The best chance for showers is expected to occur as the
front crosses overnight into Wednesday morning. A thunderstorm
or two isn`t out of the question, though the late timing of the
front could aid in limiting storm potential.

While scattered, light showers may linger into Wednesday
afternoon, the bulk of activity is expected to diminish once the
front departs to the east during the morning. Given the drier
antecedent conditions and QPF amounts projected to remain under
an inch, flooding is not currently anticipated.

High pressure builds Wednesday night into Thursday and brings drier
weather until late in the work week. Chances for both showers and
thunderstorms then return late week into next weekend as a low
tracks from the Central Plains towards the Great Lakes and lifts a
warm front across the CWA.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 110 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions persist throughout the TAF period amid dry
weather. Mainly clear skies are expected for the rest of today,
with SCT-BKN high level clouds moving in throughout the night.
There could be a bit of steam fog in some of the deeper river
valleys, but it is not progged to impact any terminals. BKN-OVC
mid/upper level clouds are expected Sunday morning through the
end of this TAF period.

WNW/NW flow is progged throughout this TAF period. Surface flow
will be gusty into this evening, with gusts of 15-25 kts
possible across much of the area, slightly higher in some cases
(particularly across the mountains). Flow becomes light or calm
overnight, then strengthens to 5-10 kts Sunday morning into the
afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ007>011-
     016>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>086.
KY...None.
VA...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB/GW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...GW