Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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106
FXUS61 KRLX 230718
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
318 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving storm system approaches on Monday with rain
lingering through midweek. Weak high pressure for the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1040 PM Sunday...Based on model forecast soundings and
with model guidance indicating a strong SE Wind flow...downslope
winds...I decided to bump up wind gusts across our southeastern
mountain forecast zones through the day tomorrow and into
tomorrow evening. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph appear likely, and
across the higher elevations of Eastern Raleigh, Fayette and
Nicholas Counties, a wind advisory may be needed for tomorrow.
Will allow the midshift to make that decision when all the 00Z
model suite comes in later tonight.

As of 620 PM Sunday...Forecast remains on track and no changes
needed at this time.

As of 243 PM Sunday...

Vertically stacked system will roll slowly eastward from the
Ozarks today making it only into western Tennessee by Monday
evening. This slow movement will keep our area largely dry
through tonight. We will have to deal with high clouds, which
became thick enough to limit sunshine and temps over the Kanawha
Valley this afternoon. Based on recent satellite imagery,
however, this appears to be thinning in enough time to allow for
a late surge in temps. The high clouds will persist in some
form or fashion overnight, but temps will still likely take
advantage of the dry low level airmass and fall, possibly as low
as the upper 40s in our normally colder valleys.

A band of rain will start to work northeastward into the
coalfields by around dawn on Monday. This will be heading into a
dry low level airmass with downsloping southeast low level flow
in place. So, the rain will likely break up some but I still
paint likely PoPs for many locations but with light QPF as this
band works deeper into the region during the day. The thicker
clouds and precip should keep temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s
for most locations. The other factor on Monday will be
increasing winds with gusts to 20 mph possible in the valleys
but 30 to 40 mph over the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Monday...

Models in fairly good agreement with a slow moving upper level
low slowly drifting across the area Tuesday through Wednesday,
providing some rain showers.

By Wednesday night however, models begin to diverge with some
models pulling the system away from the area and others dropping
another upper low into the region. Forecast confidence drops
considerably by Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 310 AM Monday...

Model discrepancies continue Thursday into Saturday as models
struggle with timing and placement of energy moving through the
upper level trough. By Sunday however, models begin to agree as
the trough pulls off to the east and a ridge begins building
over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM Monday.

The threat for LLWS continues to exist at KCRW during the
predawn hours as LLJ strengthens. This should quickly end by 12Z
as mechanical mixing becomes the rule. Otherwise, ceilings will
lower through the day as our next system approaches from the
south. Light rain showers will advance north as the day
progresses, though given the initial dry low levels and a
strong southeast flow, no restrictions are expected. Winds will
become gusty this morning as efficient mixing occurs ahead of
the showers. Gusts 20 to 30 kts out of the southeast are
expected for non mountain sites, with 30 to 40 kts possible at
BKW/EKN as the showers arrive.

A lull in the shower activity is expected this evening, though
continued strong southeast low level flow will keep strong gusts
at BKW. Ceilings will lower further there, down into MVFR by the
end of the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 04/23/18
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible Monday night and Tuesday in light to
moderate rain.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...ABE/MPK
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



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