Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 180755 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 355 AM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure over the Rockies will move northeast today and tonight pushing a warm front north through the Mid Atlantic region today, then a cold front east across the area early Thursday. A large area of high pressure will build in behind this system and will cover much of the eastern United States into Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday low pressure will move across the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast states.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 335 AM EDT Wednesday... Some stronger wind gusts, in the 40 to 60 mph range, still being reported at West Jefferson (KGEV) and a few personal weather stations at higher elevations in Watauga and Ashe Counties in North Carolina. Bufkit suggests the winds at these elevations will gradually diminish and will be less than 40 mph by 11Z/7AM. A warm front was east-west along the Kentucky/Tennesse and Virginia/North Carolina border early this morning. This front will move north this morning and will be into central Pennsylvania by afternoon. Low pressure will track northeast into the Ohio Valley overnight. Expect the cold front associated with this low to reach the western side of the central Appalachians just after midnight. Expecting mainly scattered to broken mid and high clouds today, mainly along and north of the warm front. Strong warm air advection, afternoon sun, and deep mixing with a southwest wind will all result in temperatures well into the 70s for most locations in southwest Virginia, southeast West Virginia and northwest North Carolina. Will stay on the warmer side of guidance for maximum temperatures. Low level moisture and upslope increase tonight. Best chance of showers will be in the mountains. Cold air advection does not begin until after the overnight low. Guidance should be close for minimum temperatures.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday... A cold front will sweep across the region Thursday morning. Precipitation (rain/snow) chances will primarily be along western slopes of southeast West Virginia with sprinkles/flurries across the rest of the mountains. Snow accumulations in western Greenbrier may amount to half an inch for elevations above 3000 feet in the morning, little to none in the afternoon. Through the day and into the evening, strong gusty winds are expected across the mountains and into the foothills. Wind gusts may approach advisory level along either side of the Blue Ridge. High pressure will build over the region Friday morning and linger into Saturday. With cold air coming in behind the front through the day, mountain high temperatures (mid to upper 40s) Thursday may occur before noon. East of the Blue Ridge, high temperatures may peak early in the afternoon with a range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. As winds decouple overnight, temperatures will drop into the 30s. Since the growing season has started across the foothills and piedmont counties, a frost advisory maybe needed for Friday morning. Abundant sunshine and dry air will lead to temperatures recovering Friday into the 50s west to 60s east. Temperatures will warm a few more degrees (close to seasonal levels) on Saturday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday... Collapsing upper ridge will allow a southern stream closed low to move through the southeastern US this weekend. Guidance is trending further south with the surface low along tracking along the Gulf coast with a strong wedge of high pressure east of the mountains. This will help suppress precipitation to the south and lower our chances for precipitation through the first part of next week. This pattern will also keep the region on the cold side of the low with below normal temperatures expected this weekend and into the first part of next week.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 135 AM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions will continue today and into this evening Gusty conditions will continue this evening with 40kt gusts possible at the higher elevations. A decrease in wind speeds is expected early this morning with the valleys becoming near calm with 30kt gusts still possible at the ridge tops. A warm front will pass through North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia this morning, turning winds to the southwest. Winds will gust up to 30 knots after 14Z/10AM as daytime mixing increases. High confidence of a layer of scattered to broken mid and high clouds north of the warm front. With deepening westerly winds and increasing low level moisture this afternoon and tonight there will be MVFR ceilings on the west slopes of the central Appalachians but high confidence that these lower ceilings will remain just west of KLWB and KBLF. A cold front approaches the Mid Atlantic area late tonight. Medium confidence that any showers will remain west of the region through the 06Z end of the TAF forecast period. Winds become west behind the front with gusts up to 30 knots. Extended Aviation Discussion... Sub-VFR cigs again Thursday with upslope and low level moisture in the mountains. VFR east of the Blue Ridge. VFR returns Friday although gusty north winds to persist as high pressure slowly builds in from the northwest. Winds should diminish by Saturday with VFR ceilings and visibilities. Clouds will begin to creep back into the area on Sunday in advance of an approaching low in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. However, cigs should remain VFR while the ceiling heights lower and clouds thicken. SCT MVFR showers are possible in southern Virginia and northern North Carolina Sunday night into Monday morning. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...AMS/KK

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