Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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817 FXUS61 KRNK 191853 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 253 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over Virginia will move offshore and up the northeast coast today with a cold front advancing from Virginia to Florida by this evening. A large high builds in behind this system and will cover the eastern United States Friday and Saturday. A low pressure system over the Southern Plains Saturday will move east, reaching Georgia by Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 935 AM EDT Thursday... Upstream radars show precipitation associated with short wave energy rotating around the base of the upper trof heading in our direction, and this is captured well in POP grids. Winds this morning are underperforming a bit compared to conditions advertised in yesterdays guidance. 06Z NAM low level winds seem to match 12Z RNK sounding best and Bufkit indicates that once better diurnal mixing kicks in it will still be a blustery day. No changes planned for current wind advisory but it looks like it will be closer to the low end of criteria. As winds pick up and drier air moves in, ground fuels will dry and create enhanced fire danger east of the Blue Ridge through early this evening. Previous discussion... Combination of pressure rises, low level jet and cold air advection will be enough for gusts of 40 to 50 mph at the highest elevations. Have lowered minimum temperatures a couple of degrees for tonight which brings lows to near freezing north of Lynchburg. Will introduce Freeze Watch for tonight from Appomattox County to Rockbridge County. Winds lighten but questionable if they get light enough to allow for frost across southern Virginia and northern North Carolina, given that the center of the high will be over the western Great Lakes. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Thursday... High pressure will rule the roost into the weekend with no rain expected until early next week. Cloud cover will increase each day, as well as afternoon temperatures. Friday`s highs will range from the 50s west of the Blue Ridge to the low to mid 60s east. Widespread 60 degree temperatures are expected Saturday with the exception of higher ridges being in the mid 50s. More 60 degree temperatures on tap Sunday with the piedmont flirting with the lower 70s. Temperatures Sunday are close to normal highs for this time of year. Temperatures Friday night going into Saturday morning will range in the low to mid 30s. Low level moisture will be scarce, but some patchy frost is possible. Sensitive vegetation should be protected. Temperatures Saturday night into Sunday morning will be mild with temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 30s west and lower 40s east. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday... Going to be wet/cool but not cold period, as upper low develops over the lower MS Valley Sunday and pushes across the northern tier of the Gulf Coast states Sunday afternoon into Tuesday. Models have trended north, but would like to see more consistency in them, as a further south track would lead to dry/cool with more sun while north would be wetter/cloudier but still a bit on the cool side. For consensus, models are showing more of cloudy pattern with threat of rain each day. As the low moves off the coast Wednesday, a northern stream front shift in from the northwest with another threat of showers. Sunday appears the drier of this period with increasing clouds. Highs will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s mountains, with mid to upper 60s in the piedmont/foothills, which is about 5 degrees below normal. Lows will be close to normal during the week with mid 30s to lower 40s west, to lower to mid 40s east. Highs Monday-Tuesday will be around 10 degrees below normal, ranging from the lower to mid 50s west, to upper 50s to lower 60s east. May be a little warmer Wednesday ahead of next front with upper 50s to lower 60s mountains, to mid to upper 60s east. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 250 PM EDT Thursday... Gusty winds will gradually be subsiding at TAF sites overnight as high pressure builds over the region. Locations east of the Blue Ridge will generally have VFR conditions throughout the period, but locations west of the Ridge will start off with MVFR cigs and some rain/snow showers in the vicinity, before trending to VFR early this evening. Extended Aviation Discussion... VFR conditions into Saturday as high pressure slowly builds in from the northwest. Winds will continue to diminish into Saturday. Clouds will begin to creep back into the area on Sunday in advance of an approaching low in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. However, cigs should remain VFR even while the ceiling heights lower and clouds thicken. SCT MVFR showers are possible in southern Virginia and northern North Carolina Sunday night with rain becoming more widespread across the Mid Atlantic region on Monday.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for VAZ007-009>020-022>024. Freeze Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through Friday morning for VAZ024-035-046-047. NC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for NCZ001-002-018. WV...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for WVZ042>044-507-508.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...AMS/MBS

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