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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 110535
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
135 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong weather system will cross the area on Thursday bringing the
potential for severe storms and locally heavy rain. Very gusty winds
will follow this system Friday into Saturday with some residual
showers across Southeast West Virginia. After a break in the active
weather on Sunday, a weak disturbance may cross the area on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Wind Advisory for Western Greenbrier County Thursday and
Thursday evening.
2. Locally heavy rain potential Thursday into Thursday night.
3. Marginal risk of severe weather Thursday into Thursday night.

Rain showers from this afternoon have mostly come to an end
over the area, and cloud cover has somewhat decreased, although
plenty of mid and upper level clouds remain. Cloud cover will
increase through the overnight ahead of the next approaching
system. Adjusted PoPs through this evening as rain has quickly
dissipated, but otherwise no significant changes made to the
forecast for this evening update.

Previous discussion below...

As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday...

An upper trough was positioned over Texas this afternoon. This
feature is expected to progress into the mid-Mississippi Valley by
Thursday morning and be over the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley by
Thursday evening. At the surface, low pressure over Arkansas this
afternoon, will track northeast and will be near Lake Erie by
Thursday evening.

This feature`s associated frontal systems, including a triple point,
are expected to move over our area by Thursday afternoon. Abundant
moisture is setting up to advect into and across our region as low
level southeast winds increase, drawing in a combination of Gulf of
Mexico and Atlantic moisture.

Currently, patchy light rain continues across mainly our North
Carolina counties with very patchy coverage elsewhere across the
area. As the evening progresses, we are expecting coverage of these
showers to decrease, and the overall position to trend northward.
About the same time this precipitation is ending, we will start to
see the beginnings of a new round of precipitation, a new round that
will gradually increase in coverage and amount throughout the night.
This round will be the result of the aforementioned increasing
southeast winds and moisture. Coverage will begin along the spine of
the Appalachians generally near and southwest of Floyd, VA and into
the North Carolina mountains. Through the night, coverage will
increase north and east. We will also have the potential for some
isolated thunderstorms across western areas starting after midnight.

On Thursday, we are expecting two distinct bouts of precipitation.
The first, will be a continuation and expansion of the
showers/storms expected tonight. These will become focused by the
late morning over eastern parts of the area, and progress northeast
of the region by the late afternoon. The second bout will be late
afternoon and evening showers/storms that develop as a result of the
approach of the axis of the upper trough and its associated steeper
mid-level lapse rates.

While the area is expected to have areas where locally heavy rain
occurs, at this point in time a watch is not anticipated thanks to
dry antecedent conditions, the expected fast movement of the showers
and storms, and relatively high flash flood guidance values.

The region is under a Marginal Risk of severe weather on Thursday.
The biggest threat will be damaging wind gusts. Secondarily,
isolated tornadoes will also be possible. Our atmosphere will be one
with limited CAPE but a generous amount of effective bulk shear and
decent low level helicity.

Finally, we are expecting the southeast winds to increase to values
close to Wind Advisory criteria over the western portion of
Greenbrier County. However, given recent severe weather in that area
which may have disturbed, but not completely downed some trees, an
advisory will be issued out due to the potential impact. In other
words, very gusty winds will have a better than normal chance of
bringing already weakened trees down.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for gusty winds during Thursday night into
Friday with upslope rain showers.

2) High pressure should bring drier weather for Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms should head eastward as a cold front
crosses the Mid Atlantic on Thursday night. The wind should turn
towards the west and accelerate by Friday morning. Gusts may
approach advisory criteria along the higher elevations of the
southern Blue Ridge, and the wet soil with these gusty winds could
cause scattered downed trees and power lines. Upslope rain showers
will develop along and west of the Blue Ridge on Friday morning as
an upper level low passes just to the north. Because the vorticity
axis stretches southward into North Carolina, these rain showers may
spill eastward into the Piedmont by Friday afternoon.

Eventually, the upslope moisture will fade during Friday night.
There is a chance that the rain could change to snow flurries along
the higher terrain of western Greenbrier County before the moisture
dissipates completely. Although temperatures will fall back towards
normal values for this time of year by Saturday morning, high
pressure should offer plentiful sunshine for the remainder of the
day. The gusty west wind will persist through Saturday but not be
quite as strong, and the downsloping flow east of the Blue Ridge
will allow temperatures to rebound above normal in the Piedmont.
Saturday night should see less wind with upper level ridging taking
place to indicate a warming trend ahead for early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for above normal temperatures during early
next week.

2) Rain chances may gradually increase towards Wednesday, but there
is still considerable uncertainty in the models.

An upper level ridge will build across the Southeast on Sunday,
while surface high pressure moves off the East Coast to promote
increasing warm air advection from a southwest flow. As a result,
temperatures should spike well above normal during this forecast
period. The models depict a frontal boundary diving southeastward
from the Great Lakes during Sunday night into Monday, but they do
not agree on how far south the boundary will advance before stalling
as it becomes parallel with the upper level flow. This boundary will
also not have much moisture, so just a slight chance of showers were
kept in the mountains for Monday and Tuesday. The odds of rain
increase a little by Tuesday night into Wednesday as a low pressure
system heads eastward from the northern Plains, but this system may
track too far north of the Appalachian Mountains to offer any
notable amounts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 AM EDT Thursday...

Most cigs this morning look to be in the IFR/MVFR range and
shower development may hold off until after 12-15z then stick
around for much of the day. Cigs may struggle to improve and
possibly stick around MVFR later today. There is a chance for
TSRA development as the strong frontal system pushes across by
late afternoon into evening so have a PROB30 group to include
with VRB gusts. Winds otherwise should be mainly SE to south
10-14 kts gusting 20-25 kts that shift more west later tonight
into Friday.

Forecast confidence is average.

OUTLOOK FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday into Saturday, expected gusty northwest winds on the
backside of the exiting system. Upslope showers expected for
parts of Southeast West Virginia. Most areas will trend to VFR
except for the upslope areas.

By Friday night into Sunday, VFR conditions are expected for
all locations along with weakening winds.

By Monday, a weak system may bring a return of some showers and
patchy sub-VFR conditions to Southeast West Virginia. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions are expected.

Confidence in the above extended aviation scenario is moderate.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening
     for WVZ508.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/AS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AS/AB