Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 160729 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 329 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A strong cold front will continue to progress east of the region this morning and offshore by afternoon. Much colder air on strong northwest winds including mountain snow or rain showers follows the front today into Tuesday. Weak high pressure builds in on Wednesday with warmer and drier weather expected.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM EDT Monday... Surface cold front will continue to push east of the region early this morning followed by the actual 850 mb boundary that should cross the Blue Ridge around 12z if not sooner. This looks to bring about a prolonged period of cold advection into tonight as the large upper low also pivots across including embedded shortwave energy. Resulting lift with these impulses along with upslope flow should keep periods of upslope rain/snow showers going with more significant bands of snow showers possible northwest this evening when the boundary layer cools more. However thinking any accumulation during the daylight hours will be mainly confined to the higher ridges with perhaps 1-3 inches overnight but not enough for an advisory at this point. Otherwise the combination of cold advection and subsidence within a 30-40 kt 850 mb jet likely enough to warrant a wind advisory along the southern Blue Ridge today. This may be limited by cloud cover but given wet ground and potential surge in speeds this morning will hoist a headline for ROA to TNB through 00z. Otherwise blustery and much colder mountains where expect more clouds, while the east bumps well into the 50s per downslope flow and more sunshine. Strong pressure gradient remains in place tonight with deep northwest flow aiding continued upslope along with gusty northwest winds espcly mountains. Thus will maintain going high pops northwest and clouds out to the Blue Ridge with mainly clear skies east. This of concern with possible frost/freeze conditions out east although given large temp/dewpoint spread not expecting much frost with lows enough above freezing to preclude a freeze espcly given some light mixing. Also winds may again ramp up late along the ridges behind another passing wave as the 850 mb jet again cranks up to 40 kts overnight. Lows mostly 30s east to 25-32 west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Heights to rebound Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper low exits and shortwave ridging develops between the two. This along with increasing warm advection should make for warmer temps starting Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 40s northwest to mid 50s Blue Ridge to mid 60s southeast. Will also see some increase in mid/high clouds within the deepening warm advection Tuesday night/Wednesday which will hold lows up a bit more Tuesday night with only the far northwest going below freezing. Should be a warm/breezy day Wednesday under rebounding temps aloft and enough mixing to support highs mostly 70s under some sunshine.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 510 PM EDT Sunday... With active weather in the near-term period, didn`t spend as much time with this forecast period with the forecast basis being from the overnight 00z and 06z model suite, along with early 12z guidance. Warming trend to temperatures continues early in the period (thru Thursday) before a cold front associated with a low pressure area/clipper system passes to our north. Chances for showers appear limited in this period. Brief cool down Friday into first part of Saturday with below-normal temps indicated. Temperatures than begin to warm along with moisture values as we await a progged strong southern stream disturbance moving out of the mid-Mississippi Valley to impact the region Sunday into Monday. This may bring another shot of decent rainfall to the region.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 100 AM EDT Monday... Showers/rain should continue to push slowly east overnight before exiting the region over the next few hours. Still looking at poor flying conditions with IFR cigs and at times IFR vsbys. Winds will shift from the south to west as the front moves through overnight, reaching KROA 07z, and LYH/DAN 09-10z. Winds will pick up behind the front especially after 12z, but should expect sub-VFR cigs at least in the mountains through most of the period. Extended Aviation Discussion... Gusty northwest winds will continue Monday night through Tuesday along with mountain sub-VFR in low cigs espcly KBLF/KLWB. Finally looking at a return to overall VFR on Wednesday with a gusty southwest wind likely ahead of yet another approaching cold front. Next front arrives Wed night-Thu with chance of showers, with gusty winds and sub-VFR cigs again Thursday in the mountains. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 100 AM EDT Monday... Main concern overnight into Monday will be with runoff of heavy rainfall from earlier causing rapid rises along creeks and streams. This in conjunction with 1-4+ inches of rain that fell during Sunday with the heaviest over the mountains where larger mainstem rivers will likely rise into action stage or higher. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ015>017-022. NC...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ001-002-018. WV...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...AL AVIATION...AL/JH/WP HYDROLOGY...WP

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