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000
FXUS61 KRNK 180700
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
300 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry day is expected today with northwesterly winds. A much
stronger front will cross our area Friday bringing some showers
and storms, then cooler weather arrives for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1. Dry, warm, and breezy.

A few showers still remain across the West Virginia mountains,
but these will continue to decrease over the next few hours.

Winds will gust up to 25 mph along the higher elevations today.
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal with lows
ranging from the lower 50s to the lower 60s, but highs should
climb into the mid/upper 70s for the mountains and low/mid 80s
for the Piedmont. Dewpoints will also fall into the upper 30s
to the mid 40s by this afternoon, which will push relative
humidities below 30 percent at most locations.

Winds quickly diminish around sunset and winds overnight should
be nearly calm. Could potentially have some spots into the 40s
tonight if skies can remain clear to allow for radiational
cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1: Showers and thunderstorms Friday

2: Temperatures above normal

Low pressure and an associated cold front will move across the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states Friday and Friday night.
This will result in a good chance of showers and a few storms
across our mountains with higher uncertainty to the east. Attm
models struggle bringing the shower activity east of the
mountains, with QPF ranging from a quarter inch in the mountains
to less than a tenth of an inch in the piedmont.

The front is forecast to stall over the Carolinas Friday night
and may delay any clearing, but do think that temperatures will
come back down into a normal range. Until then expect above
normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1: Rain chances Saturday, Sunday, and Wednesday

2: Cooler than normal temperatures Sunday and Monday.

A weak low pressure system over the Carolinas will move off the
coast Saturday afternoon. Once this low is offshore, a cold
front will slide across the area Saturday night, followed by
cooler than normal temperatures Sunday and Monday. Some showers
and a few thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage
Saturday afternoon and evening.

A disturbance in eastern Texas will track across the Deep South
Saturday, then move off the Carolina Coast Sunday night. The
northern edge of the rain shield is expected to reach the
Highway 460 corridor Sunday afternoon, then exit the piedmont
around midnight. An area of weak high pressure will skirt across
the region Monday and Tuesday, allowing temperatures to return
to near normal levels. Showers reenter the area Wednesday as
another cold front tracks over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

Some MVFR cloudiness this morning across the mountains as a
passage of a decaying front moves through. MVFR will linger
to daybreak, but then should see widespread VFR for the
remainder of the TAF period as skies become clear.

Winds will be on the increase today, gusty from the northwest.
Could see some gusts to 20kt to perhaps 25kts in the mountains.
Winds quickly diminish by sunset and will be light/calm
tonight.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

VFR conditions are expected into early Friday. However, a cold
front will cross the area by late Friday with scattered showers
and thunderstorms possible. The cold front will exit eastward by
Saturday, but some MVFR ceilings may linger in the mountains
through the morning. North winds will provide some clearing for
late Saturday, but more moisture may surge northeastward during
Sunday and Monday to bring another chance of rain.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...DB