Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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000
FXUS61 KRNK 240931
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
531 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Northwest winds will become gusty during this evening into
tonight. High pressure should bring dry weather and lighter
winds for Sunday through early Tuesday. The next chance of rain
will arrive by the middle of this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Message:
1. Dry high pressure builds over the region.
High pressure builds across the east today providing abundant
sunshine and lessening winds.
Still seeing a few areas in the higher elevations gusting into
the 20 mph range, but the overall trend with the winds has been
downward the past few hours. Winds will continue to decrease as
high pressure moves east today.
Temperatures this morning chilly in the 20s and low 30s, but
warming into the mid to low 50s by the afternoon.
North/northeast winds as high pressure wedges south along the
Appalachians. Clear, dry and light winds will allow for another
cold overnight in the 20s and 30s. Favored valleys could radiate
and perhaps see low 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 430 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
1. Winds approach advisory criteria late Monday/Monday night in
parts of southeast WV and far southwest VA.
2. Minimum relative humidity values fall into the 20s Monday
afternoon.
3. Widespread light rain arrives in the mountains Tuesday into
Tuesday night.
Stacked ridging and surface high pressure will practically
guarantee dry weather on Monday/Monday night. This could become
problematic as relative humidity in the same time frame is
expected to drop into the 20-30% range, and winds will ramp up
to 30-40MPH gusts out of the south in the mountains. This could
raise concern for fire danger near the start of the week.
By Tuesday clouds will begin filling in ahead of an approaching
front from the west. Rain should begin in the Tuesday
afternoon/evening timeframe, but model trends have hinted at a
slower arrival as the driving system is held up against strong
ridging over the east coast. While rain looks to affect the
entire forecast area with this system, moisture availability is
not abundant, so not expecting particularly heavy rain in any
location.
Temperatures will be below normal Monday before southerly flow
brings Tuesday temps back into the upper 50s and 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 500 AM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
1. Timing uncertain for rain ending with mid-week system
2. Above normal temperatures possible next weekend.
A slow moving front will cross the area Wednesday and into
Thursday. Confidence is low in when rain from this system will
end, though the most likely scenario is early Thursday. In the
same time period an embedded shortwave in the southeast coastal
waters will spin up a surface low, perhaps introducing a
deformation zone to our eastern areas late Thursday and into
Friday. The GEFS and NAEFS show a larger than normal spread of
QPF for our eastern areas, like DAN. If the worst case scenario
(stronger/slower) low forms, there may the potential for minor
river flooding with the NAEFS.
Some deterministic guidance suggests a weaker/faster solution
and thus less rainfall and areal coverage of rainfall.
Otherwise, near normal temperatures are expected mid to late
week, with the greatest chance of rain on Wednesday. There is
uncertainty with regard to the amplitude and location of a
building upper level ridge next weekend. While it appears the
axis of this upper level ridge will be to our west, there should
be some downslope component to the winds to allow temperatures
to warm on Saturday above values expected mid to late in the
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 AM EDT Sunday...
Widespread VFR this morning as high pressure becomes the
dominant weather feature across the region. Winds still remain
elevated across the higher terrain, but will begin to taper as
the morning progresses. A few low clouds with cigs in the 1500ft
to 2000ft range remain over portions of southeast West Virginia,
but should diminish by daybreak.
Clear skies for the remainder of the 24hr TAF period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR conditions are expected for Sunday night through Monday
night. There may be a breezy southeast wind for BLF and LWB
Monday with gusts up to 20 knots. Clouds will increase on
Tuesday as a low pressure system approaches from the west. The
next chance of rain and IFR/MVFR conditions occurs during
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Conditions will gradually improve
by Thursday as the low pressure system heads offshore.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...PH/VFJ
AVIATION...BMG