Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 240931 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 531 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Northwest winds will become gusty during this evening into tonight. High pressure should bring dry weather and lighter winds for Sunday through early Tuesday. The next chance of rain will arrive by the middle of this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM EDT Sunday... Key Message: 1. Dry high pressure builds over the region. High pressure builds across the east today providing abundant sunshine and lessening winds. Still seeing a few areas in the higher elevations gusting into the 20 mph range, but the overall trend with the winds has been downward the past few hours. Winds will continue to decrease as high pressure moves east today. Temperatures this morning chilly in the 20s and low 30s, but warming into the mid to low 50s by the afternoon. North/northeast winds as high pressure wedges south along the Appalachians. Clear, dry and light winds will allow for another cold overnight in the 20s and 30s. Favored valleys could radiate and perhaps see low 20s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 430 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1. Winds approach advisory criteria late Monday/Monday night in parts of southeast WV and far southwest VA. 2. Minimum relative humidity values fall into the 20s Monday afternoon. 3. Widespread light rain arrives in the mountains Tuesday into Tuesday night. Stacked ridging and surface high pressure will practically guarantee dry weather on Monday/Monday night. This could become problematic as relative humidity in the same time frame is expected to drop into the 20-30% range, and winds will ramp up to 30-40MPH gusts out of the south in the mountains. This could raise concern for fire danger near the start of the week. By Tuesday clouds will begin filling in ahead of an approaching front from the west. Rain should begin in the Tuesday afternoon/evening timeframe, but model trends have hinted at a slower arrival as the driving system is held up against strong ridging over the east coast. While rain looks to affect the entire forecast area with this system, moisture availability is not abundant, so not expecting particularly heavy rain in any location. Temperatures will be below normal Monday before southerly flow brings Tuesday temps back into the upper 50s and 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 500 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1. Timing uncertain for rain ending with mid-week system 2. Above normal temperatures possible next weekend. A slow moving front will cross the area Wednesday and into Thursday. Confidence is low in when rain from this system will end, though the most likely scenario is early Thursday. In the same time period an embedded shortwave in the southeast coastal waters will spin up a surface low, perhaps introducing a deformation zone to our eastern areas late Thursday and into Friday. The GEFS and NAEFS show a larger than normal spread of QPF for our eastern areas, like DAN. If the worst case scenario (stronger/slower) low forms, there may the potential for minor river flooding with the NAEFS. Some deterministic guidance suggests a weaker/faster solution and thus less rainfall and areal coverage of rainfall. Otherwise, near normal temperatures are expected mid to late week, with the greatest chance of rain on Wednesday. There is uncertainty with regard to the amplitude and location of a building upper level ridge next weekend. While it appears the axis of this upper level ridge will be to our west, there should be some downslope component to the winds to allow temperatures to warm on Saturday above values expected mid to late in the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 AM EDT Sunday... Widespread VFR this morning as high pressure becomes the dominant weather feature across the region. Winds still remain elevated across the higher terrain, but will begin to taper as the morning progresses. A few low clouds with cigs in the 1500ft to 2000ft range remain over portions of southeast West Virginia, but should diminish by daybreak. Clear skies for the remainder of the 24hr TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions are expected for Sunday night through Monday night. There may be a breezy southeast wind for BLF and LWB Monday with gusts up to 20 knots. Clouds will increase on Tuesday as a low pressure system approaches from the west. The next chance of rain and IFR/MVFR conditions occurs during Tuesday night into Wednesday. Conditions will gradually improve by Thursday as the low pressure system heads offshore. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...PH/VFJ AVIATION...BMG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.