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550
FXUS61 KRNK 070629
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
229 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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The weather pattern will remain unsettled for much of the
week with a daily threat of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms through Thursday. Cooler and drier weather returns
by the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Potential thunderstorm this afternoon and evening.


A few showers still remain throughout the area this morning, but
coverage and intensity of these showers have been on a
downtrend. Expect most showery activity to subside by daybreak.
Fog will begin to develop again as skies clear, and could be
dense in some locations. Lows this morning remain mild in the
upper 50s/low 60s.

Upper wave responsible for the rain/storms yesterday will move
off the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning and weak ridging builds
overhead. Will see an increase in westerly winds behind the
departing wave. Still a bit of uncertainty on storm coverage today
with the upper ridging and westerly flow that will be in place,
which tends to suppress storm development. HRRR, NAM, and
multiple renditions of the WRF all indicate very spotty coverage
today as well. With this is mind, kept the PoPs highest over the
western mountains really decreased chances east of the
mountains. May have late development as the westerly wind
relaxes late this evening, but will begin to lose instability by
that point as we lose daytime heating. However, any storm that
is able to develop will have the potential for damaging winds,
especially with modeled DCAPE over 1000 J/kg by the mid-
afternoon.

Expecting any convection to quickly diminish after sunset and
may have areas of fog develop again tonight. Low a bit warmer in
the mid to low 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

   - Increasing flash flood threat
   - Periods of numerous showers and thunderstorms

Short range starts with south west flow between large upper low over
the Northern Plains and upper ridging over the western
Atlantic. Then by Thursday a long wave troughing digs over the
eastern United States. The upper trough axis moves the coast for
Sunday and Monday.

At the surface the main cold front will cross the area Thursday.
Temperatures remain above normal ahead of the front, especially
overnight. Precipitable water values remain just above two
standard deviations above normal ahead of the front through
Thursday as forecast by the North American Ensemble. Plus
multiple days of numerous thunderstorms will steadily saturate
the soil leading to a higher probability of flooding by
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

  - Temperatures cool off
  - Daily threat of thunderstorms continues

Overall synoptic scale pattern during this time frame features broad
troughing in the eastern United States and lower 5000 MB heights. No
particular focus to aid in development of precipitation but region
remains cooler than earlier in the week, but warm enough for a daily
chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. For now,
enough of a break from the deep moisture to the forecast for Monday
dry.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...

Poor flying tonight at many locations due to patchy dense fog.
Fog coverage will continue to increase through sunrise as mid
level clouds erode, giving way to mostly clear skies.

Any fog will likely erode by 14z. Ceilings will be variable
through at least midday Tuesday, but improve to VFR for much of
the area by Tuesday afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Tuesday afternoon,
with the best coverage over the mountains. Therefore, have
introduced a period of thunder for BCB/BLF/LWB for a few hours
this evening.

Winds increase from the west today, a bit gusty across the
mountains at times. Possibly gusting to 20kts.

Fog possible again overnight, especially for any areas that may
see rain today.

Forecast confidence is average.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Unsettled weather is expected for much of the week. Daily
threat of SHRA/TSRA through Friday. This will bring periods of
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds through
Wednesday will favor a SW direction and may be gusty at times.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...BMG