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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 221405
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1005 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure will build into the region today.
Temperatures will start to moderate heading into the middle of
the week with the approach of a cold front. This front is
expected to cross our region on Wednesday with scattered showers
mainly across the mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1000 AM EDT Monday...

Had some cloud cover over the eastern portions of the area this
morning, which limited the potential cooling overnight east of
the mountains where the growing season has begun.

Clouds have dissipated and widespread sunny skies can be
expected today. Warmer than yesterday, but still a northerly
breeze turning northwest by this evening.



As of 249 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1) Dry and sunny today with cooler highs.


Dry weather today after some patchy fog and cloud exit the piedmont
this morning. Some frost possible across the southern Shenandoah
Valley at dawn. High pressure works in from the west today offering
plenty of sunshine and light north to northwest wind. Temperatures
to stay below normal by about 5 degrees with highs ranging from the
mid 60s east to mid 50s to around 60 west.

Clear tonight with the high shift to the east. Could see a few high
clouds across the Alleghanys by dawn. Lows will be in the 30s.

Forecast confidence is high.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for dry weather on Tuesday and on Thursday.

2) A chance of showers exists in the mountains for Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

High pressure across the Mid Atlantic should keep conditions dry on
Tuesday, but it will head offshore by Tuesday evening as a cold
front approaches from the northwest. However, the area of low
pressure associated with this cold front will stay well to the north
in eastern Canada. The frontal boundary will also not be able to tap
into any Gulf or Atlantic moisture. Therefore, just a chance of
showers exists in the mountains for Tuesday night into Wednesday,
while the wind shifts towards the west to aid in downsloping east of
the Blue Ridge and to limit any moisture in the Piedmont.

As the cold front exits off the East Coast by Wednesday night, high
pressure will build southeastward from the Great Lakes. The wind
should diminish enough to allow good radiational cooling and send
temperatures down into the 30s and 40s. The 2024 growing season will
begin on April 25 in the mountains, which will be on Thursday in
this forecast period. As a result, some patchy frost has been
inserted into the forecast for western Greenbrier County of West
Virginia where temperatures fall close to the freezing mark. Dry
weather will persist through Thursday, but high temperatures should
only reach the 50s and 60s, which will be roughly ten degrees lower
compared to Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for a warming trend during the weekend.

2) Chances of showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase.

High pressure will wedge against the eastern slopes of the Blue
Ridge on Friday, and an easterly flow should keep temperatures near
or slightly below normal. A warm front will nudge northward around
the western periphery of the wedge during Friday afternoon into
Saturday, which could bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms
for the mountains. As high pressure drifts offshore by Sunday, the
wedge will weaken as the flow swings to the southwest. Increasing
warm air advection and an approaching upper level ridge will push
high temperatures above normal on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, a low
pressure system intensifying in the Plains could combine with the
increasing warmth and moisture to promote higher chances of showers
and thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge as the weekend concludes.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions are then expected to continue across the entire
area through the conclusion of the valid TAF conclusion time.

Confidence in the above aviation scenario is high.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Drier air will provide good flying weather through Tuesday.
Another cold front will arrive during Tuesday night into
Wednesday to bring the next potential for MVFR ceilings and rain
showers in the mountains. Thursday looks dry and supporting of
VFR.

A warm front approaches Friday although think VFR conditions
remain, but could start to see sub-VFR toward LWB/BLF late
Friday into Friday night.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/WP
NEAR TERM...BMG/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DS/WP