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439
FXUS61 KRNK 301832
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
232 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front exits the region tonight. Dry high pressure
follows for late Wednesday into Thursday with continued above
normal temperatures. Another cold front brings wet weather to
the region for the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening.

2. Clouds overnight but another warm day tomorrow.

The first line of showers associated with a surface front and
southern stream short wave moving through. We will see a few
more hours of showers and thunderstorms. Instability does not
look impressive, but we could see a few claps of thunder as
additional forcing nears and lapse rates increase, especially
over the southern Piedmont where temperatures are much warmer
than the mountains. After sunset precipitation should wane and
exit to the east.

Expecting plenty of very low stratus/fog overnight, especially
where it rains. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 40s
to mid 50s for the mountains, and the mid 50s to low 60s for the
Piedmont. Clouds dissipate towards morning and expect sunny
skies Wednesday. This will mainly impact the mountains which
will see the biggest increase in temperatures between today and
tomorrow. Expect low to upper 70s for the mountains, with lower
80s for the Piedmont.

Confidence is high in the near term.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 150 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Dry and warm weather for the second half of the week.

The Mid-Atlantic will be situated underneath an intensifying
500mb ridge from Wednesday onward, set in between a shortwave
trough to the east just into the Atlantic, and a deepening
trough to the west in the plains. A modest surface high will
remain static over the GA/SC coast. With the suppression from
the ridge keeping skies clear and preventing precipitation,
expect a sunny Thursday. Clouds will form on Friday morning and
spread east over the area throughout the day ahead of an
encroaching front. In the overnight period Friday into Saturday,
there is a slight chance for the earliest showers to impact our
mountain zones near the WV/VA border.

Southerly flow will remain constant due to the aforementioned
coastal high, which will serve to keep our temperatures above
normal. This will be amplified by the almost full insolation on
Thursday, and the increased southerly flow in the warm sector on
Friday as an front reaches our doorstep in the west. Widespread
highs in the 70s and closing in on 90 for Southside/Piedmont.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Frontal passage over the weekend will bring storms

2: Uncertainty for next week

In contrast to the back half of this week, the weekend will be
unsettled and rainy. A front trailing south from a vertically
stacked low pressure system and cutoff low in Canada north of
the Great Lakes will make its passage through our region
starting Saturday and lingering through Sunday. Showers and
storms will make use of the ample moisture in the environment to
create a rainy, overcast weekend. Temperatures will cool and
return closer to normal. Monday will see showers taper off.

Several deterministic models exhibit a small upper shortwave
moving through the TN Valley or OH River Valley before the
next major frontal system. The location and timing of this
feature is quite varied, so confidence on impacts for us on
Monday and Tuesday from this are low. It will be a feature to
watch in subsequent model runs.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday...

Showers associated with a cold front were moving across the
mountains but generally falling apart as they do so. However
additional showers and storms will be possible through about
01/01Z. Skies become low VFR/MVFR as the evening goes on and
BLF, LWB, and BCB drop to IFR around 06Z or later as upslope
stratus/basically fog develops and doesn`t dissipate until
13-14Z. Locations east of the Blue Ridge will remain VFR. Expect
VFR and SKC for Wednesday.

Average confidence in ceiling, visibility, wind, and the timing
of showers and thunderstorms.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

Thursday is forecast to be VFR and dry.

The next cold front and probability of precipitation arrive in
the area on Friday. The potential for showers and thunderstorms
with MVFR ceilings and visibilities really increase Saturday
into Sunday.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS/SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...SH