Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 251921 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 321 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A closed upper level trough should move further away from the Mid Atlantic tonight. Another upper level trough could bring more rain during Thursday night into Friday. High pressure should arrive to provide drier conditions during the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... A closed upper trough will drift offshore later today into tonight. Showers have slowly faded east of the Blue Ridge, and some peeks of sunshine have appeared across the Mid Atlantic. Northeast flow that kept conditions generally cloudy and damp up to this point is turning around to the northwest, which should weaken the wedge. A late surge in temperatures will take place for the remainder of the day where some locations could reach the lower 70s, especially in the North Carolina foothills. Meanwhile, upslope northwest flow is keeping low clouds and scattered showers in the higher elevations west of a line from Lewisburg to Boone. These upslope showers should linger into early tonight and dissipate after midnight as the upper trough moves further away from the Mid Atlantic. However, the combination of light winds and residual surface moisture should result in more patchy fog by early Thursday morning. Temperatures should rise more quickly by midday once the fog and low clouds dissipate. However, the next upper level trough will approach from the southwest by the afternoon to reintroduce cloud cover and showers.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... An upper level closed low will begin to track (GFS) to the northeast along the western side of the south-central Appalachian Mountains Thursday night into Friday. The surface low, closely attached to the upper low is expected to track over the mountains and parallel to the Blue Ridge. This system will move north of the area by Friday afternoon. The current GFS track will have rainfall of one to three quarters of an inch for the area, possibly over an inch along the Blue Ridge. According to the ECM, rainfall amounts could be higher across the piedmont (up to an inch) as the low opens into a trough over the mountains with the surface low tracking east of the Blue Ridge. The ECM also develops a deformation zone north of the area which will lead to lower amounts (quarter of an inch) west of the Blue Ridge. The NAM is in between the GFS/ECM to where most of the rain falls along the Blue Ridge and over the piedmont and is similar to amounts. All models have this system exiting by Friday afternoon. Temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 60s west to the lower 70s east. Following the closed low/trough exit Friday afternoon, a couple of weak boundaries will slide across the region through Saturday. Both of these boundaries will usher in slightly drier air each time, but will not offer much in the way of cooler temperatures. The cooler air will come in following a cold front Saturday night. Some light showers along western slopes may accompany each boundary, with maybe a hundredth or two of rain. Since the cold air will not arrive until Saturday night, Saturday`s high temperatures will be close to normal with 60s west to the low to mid 70s east.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday... High pressure will move over the region starting Sunday. Cooler than normal temperatures are expected Sunday. The combination of dry air and abundant sunshine, temperatures will return to normal levels Monday then moderate above normal Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday`s and Wednesday`s temperatures could be around 10F warmer than normal with 70s west and 80s east.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 210 PM EDT Wednesday... Flying conditions will slowly improve through the afternoon as ceilings rise from MVFR to VFR. However, confidence is only moderate that most locations will get to VFR, and it is not expected to occur at BLF. The scattered rain showers should eventually dissipate later this evening and tonight as the closed upper level trough moves away from the Mid Atlantic. Fog and low clouds should again become an issue tonight for BLF/LWB/BCB due to the saturated surface. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions for these sites, while ROA/LYH/DAN should stay at VFR through the night and into Thursday. Slow improvement to VFR should occur for the western TAF sites during the morning. Extended Aviation Discussion... Unsettled weather conditions should continue for the remainder of this work week as another area of low pressure heads toward the Mid Atlantic. MVFR/IFR ceilings along with rain showers may take place during Thursday night and Friday. High pressure should build overhead to bring VFR conditions for all sites by Saturday afternoon. Good flying weather will persist through the remainder of this weekend and into Monday.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...PW

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