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000
FXUS61 KRNK 250636
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
236 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry weather is expected today with warm weather and sunny skies.
A wedge of high pressure builds in by Friday morning, bringing
clouds, lower temperatures, and a low chance for showers in the
mountains through Saturday. Sunday into the beginning of next
week look especially warm, with shower chances returning
Tuesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1. Cooler today in easterly flow.

2. Clouds begin to arrive from the east this afternoon and
evening.

Light northerly winds were helping to drag higher pressure into
the region along with stratus over the Greenbrier Valley. An
area of mid clouds was persistently regenerating over parts of
the VA Piedmont and central VA in association with short wave
energy aloft and a lee standing wave.

Skies become mostly sunny after daybreak with light easterly
winds. Highs today will be in the 60s to low 70s, tamped down by
the cooler easterly flow which will bring clouds in from the
east beginning this afternoon. Followed close to MOS guidance
for slightly lower dew points in the mountains, but they do
begin to tick up by the afternoon as moisture arrives.

Overnight, widespread low stratus is expected as a wedge of
high pressure builds in along the Blue Ridge. Expect some patchy
drizzle by daybreak. Confidence in the near term is high.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 215 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) High pressure will remain wedged against the eastern slopes
of the Blue Ridge through Friday and Saturday.

2) Confidence is high for warmer weather by Sunday.

A cool and damp easterly flow due to high pressure centered over
the New England states will enforce a wedge against the
eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge through Friday and Saturday.
Meanwhile, a warm front will head northward along the western
periphery of the wedge. As a result, a chance of rain is
possible along and west of the Blue Ridge during Friday and
Friday night. Some patchy drizzle or fog may also be possible.
The rain will taper by Saturday as the warm front heads north of
the Mid Atlantic. Temperatures were pushed to the cooler side
of model guidance during Friday and Saturday in response to the
widespread cloud cover and the aforementioned rain chances.

By Saturday night, high pressure will head offshore, and the
wedge should weaken and eventually dissipate on Sunday as the
flow turns to the south. A strong upper level ridge building
over the Appalachian Mountains and the increased warm air
advection at the surface should boost temperatures notably
higher with 70s becoming commonplace by Sunday afternoon. Dry
weather is expected for Sunday and Sunday night, and it will
become even warmer after the last weekend of April 2024
concludes.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 215 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for above normal warmth on Monday.

2) A cold front will arrive on Tuesday to bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

A strong upper level ridge combined with a southwest flow at the
surface should push temperatures considerably above normal on
Monday. Highs in the lower to mid 80s appear likely for the
Piedmont by Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, a low pressure system
should head northeastward from the central Plains. The strong
upper level ridge will likely slow the forward momentum of the
approaching cold front at first, which has resulted in any
shower or thunderstorm chances being delayed until Monday night
in the mountains. Those chances should spread eastward and
become more widespread on Tuesday as the ridge weakens to allow
the cold front to reach the Mid Atlantic. However, the frontal
boundary may also weaken as it reaches the East Coast on
Wednesday, so the air mass behind the front could still remain
rather warm.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail today, with a low chance for sub-MVFR
stratus/visibilities at BLF and LWB this morning until 12Z.
Winds become easterly around 15Z, allowing for increasing VFR
ceilings by this afternoon from the Blue Ridge eastward. MVFR
ceilings arrive after 00Z, with widespread LIFR/IFR likely for
all terminals by 06Z with patchy drizzle.

Average confidence in the aviation forecast.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

A wedge of high pressure along with MVFR or lower ceilings and
scattered -RA develops Friday through Saturday in primarily
easterly flow. On Sunday, rain chances and sub-MVFR conditions
continue as a disturbance passes by to our north. On Monday we
should see improvement to VFR. Winds turn more southerly Sunday
and Monday.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...SH