Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 200658 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 258 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A large high will cover much pf the eastern United States today through Saturday. Low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday will track northeast to the Virginia coast by Wednesday. This will bring widespread rain and below normal temperatures to the Mid Atlantic region Monday and Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 225 AM EDT Friday... No changes to Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning for this morning. Surface high pressure from teh Great Lakes to the Carolina today and tonight. Dry air mass in place with little cloud cover expected. Warm air advection at 850mb, dry air and a lot of sun will mean a large rise in temperatures today. Similarly, dry air and surface dew points in the 20s will result in sharp drop in temperatures after sunset. Winds in the valleys will decouple with ideal radiational cooling conditions. Will headline more frost east of the Blue Ridge along with a Freeze Watch for a few counties north of Route 460 again tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Friday... Surface high pressure centered along the Virginia coast, will weaken some on Saturday, but still keep the area dry. An inverted surface trough is expected to emerge west of the Appalachains and should only develop a few fair weather cumulus clouds Saturday afternoon across the mountains. Mostly sunny skies with a light east to southeast flow will allow for highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s areawide, coolest in the higher ridges. A back-door front will stall across north-central Virginia Saturday night. This front will bring more clouds than previously thought into the area overnight. These clouds will help keep overnight temperatures mild in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The back-door front washes out on Sunday while clouds stick around through the day. If these clouds remain thick and with a southeasterly flow, temperatures Sunday maybe similar to Saturday (upper 50s to mid 60s). A slow moving closed low is expected to track from Arkansas Sunday morning to eastern Tennessee late Sunday night. Models have a strong short wave out ahead of this low moving up the southern Appalachian Mountains Sunday night. With high pressure to the north and the low to the southwest, southeast flow will increase and transport of Gulf and Atlantic moisture should reach the southern Blue Ridge and adjacent foothills of NC into far southwest VA by dawn Monday. Latest models are coming around toward a wet Monday, but the weekend stays dry.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 200 PM EDT Thursday... Not a lot of confidence in the models as they continue to shift back and forth with track of upper and surface low across the Gulf Coast States early next week, then offshore by Wednesday followed by another front Wednesday-Wed night. Ensembles are leaning toward a wetter solution similar but not as wet as the 12z GFS. The 0z ECM appears driest early on. Will increase pops Mon-Tuesday but cap pops in the likely range with best coverage over our southern CWA. High pressure over the mid-Atlantic coast then offshore will provide an easterly fetch and in-situ wedge which could hold temps down quite a bit Monday, with 40s in the mountains of NC/far southern VA but due to uncertainty on northern shield of rain will have temps a little milder but still at or just under mex mos elsewhere. Low tracks to the GA coast by Tuesday morning, then northeast off the NC coast by Wednesday morning as northern stream wave allows another front to cross Wednesday night. So in essence most of the extended period will hold a threat of rain with best chance Mon-Monday night into early Tuesday, possibly a break Tue-Tue night but will not have sub-30 percent pops at this time. Should be drier by later Thu-Thu night.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 120 AM EDT Friday... High confidence of VFR conditions today and tonight across the Mid Atlantic region. Extended Aviation Discussion... VFR conditions into Saturday as high pressure slowly builds in from the northwest. Clouds will begin to creep back into the area on Sunday in advance of an approaching low in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. However, cigs should remain VFR even while the ceiling heights lower and clouds thicken. SCT MVFR showers are possible in southern Virginia and northern North Carolina Sunday night with rain becoming more widespread across the Mid Atlantic region on Monday. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Tuesday due to rain. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ022-023- 032>034-043>047-058-059. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ024-035. NC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ003>006-019- 020. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...AMS/KK

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