-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
584
FXUS61 KRNK 012324
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
724 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, high pressure will remain in control of the weather into
Thursday with continued above normal temperatures. A frontal
system brings wet weather to the region mainly Saturday and
Sunday. Unseasonably warm temperatures and a daily threat of
late day showers and thunderstorms continues early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 720 PM EDT Wednesday...

No changes were made to the forecast this evening. Dry and
clear conditions expected to continue through tomorrow.


As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1. Even warmer tomorrow, and within a few degrees of breaking
record highs. See Climate section below for more details.

High pressure centered along the central and southern
Appalachians is helping to keep skies clear, especially over the
mountains. Daytime cumulus had developed over the Piedmont, and
this will dissipate this evening. Lows tonight will be warm and
in the low to upper 50s, with warmer temperatures along the
ridgetops and parts of the Piedmont. Not expecting stratus/fog
across the mountains as some models suggest, based on lack of
low level moisture.

Ridging at the surface and aloft build further into the area
tomorrow. Increasing 1000-850 mb thicknesses will yield high
temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 for much of the area.
Sunny skies and dew points in the 40s and 50s will make for a
very pleasant day...just remember the sunscreen. Winds become
WNW in the morning, then turn southerly by the afternoon,
bringing in some moisture from the Atlantic and allowing dew
points to slowly increase.

Confidence in the near term is high.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
2. More widespread coverage of showers and storms Saturday.
3. Above normal temperatures through the weekend.

An unsettled weather pattern moves into the area late in the
week. Mean upper level ridging persists over the eastern US,
leading to continued above normal temperatures through the end
of the week and into the weekend. A weak cold front approaches
the Appalachians by Friday, increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms for the mountains by Friday afternoon. The 500mb
ridge shifts farther eastward, as well as the surface high that
has been settled overhead for Thursday, by the end of the work
week. This will allow for increased onshore flow from the
Atlantic into the region, resulting in above normal precipitable
water values by Saturday. As the front progresses eastward into
the better moisture, expecting more widespread coverage of
showers and thunderstorms, with potentially locally heavy rain,
for Saturday and Saturday night.

Temperatures will still be above normal through the forecast
period, although Friday and Saturday will be a few degrees
cooler given ample cloud cover and rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Daily chances for showers and storms continue, greatest
probability on Sunday.
2. Slightly cooler temperatures, but still above normal.

The unsettled weather pattern continues through the end of the
weekend and into the next work week, with daily chances of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The ridge over the
eastern US shifts east and begins to flatten as a trough crosses
southern Canada Sunday into Monday. Ridging develops again over
the southeast in response to a stronger upper level low that is
forecast to move onshore the western coast early in the week,
tracking into the central US by Tuesday. The cold front
associated with the first upper low over southern Canada will
reach the area Sunday, bringing the greatest chances for showers
and thunderstorms through this forecast period for Sunday.
Surface high pressure briefly builds into the area from the
north Monday, which will likely bring a break in the rain.
However, precipitation chances increase again late Monday, as an
upper shortwave crosses the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic.
Southwesterly flow at the surface and aloft will continue to
transport moisture northward from the Gulf through the beginning
of the work week, ahead of the system moving in from the west,
which will contribute to continued chances for showers and
possibly storms on Monday night and into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 720 PM EDT Wednesday...


Widespread VFR this evening and this is expected through the
24hr TAF period. Low confidence in fog development tonight
across the Piedmont region, which may impact DAN if it does
develop.

Winds are generally light and variable, going calm overnight
night. Winds remain light tomorrow under high pressure.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

Thursday night and the first half of Friday look VFR with dry
weather. A frontal system will bring rain showers and TSRA to
the region, possibly as early as Friday afternoon in the west.
This timing could easily be slowed down however, and may need to
be adjusted, as happens often in the warm season. The increased
chances for rain spreads to the remainder of the area by
sometime Saturday along with MVFR ceilings. Chances for
rain/TSRA/MVFR conditions or lower continue Sunday through
Monday, mainly in the afternoon hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Record high temperatures for May 2

Bluefield, WV....89 in 2010
Danville, VA.....93 in 1942
Lynchburg, VA....91 in 1942
Roanoke, VA......92 in 1959
Blacksburg, VA...87 in 1942

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...BMG/SH
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG/SH
CLIMATE...AMS