Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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205 FXUS61 KRNK 250953 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 553 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low and related surface low pressure center will track northeastward across our region today into tonight. A disturbance could bring more rain during Thursday and Friday. High pressure should arrive to provide drier conditions by the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday... Surface low pressure across central North Carolina this morning will rotate northeast today and reach New York by this evening. Then, the low center lifts northeast into New England tonight. This morning WSR-88d images showed pockets of rain lifting northward across much of the region. The northeasterly flow is enhancing some of the rain this morning in the east. Remnant convection to our south weakened quickly as it encountered the stable wedge. Saturated profiles, wet soils and light winds have lead to the development of light mist, rain and patchy fog this morning. The cloudy, dreary and rainy weather this morning will transition to drier and clearing weather this afternoon in the east when the flow becomes northwest. However in the west, upslope northwest flow will result in lingering clouds and scattered showers. There may be enough instability in the east this afternoon for an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Shaped the pops this morning towards the HRRR and blended this afternoon towards the NamDNG. A non-diurnal temperature curve was utilized today with a slow warm up early followed by a late surge toward sunset. High temperatures today will range from the lower 50s in the mountains to the lower 70s in the piedmont. Scattered upslope showers in the west will taper off this evening into tonight as the low and the weak cold front move further away. The combination of light winds and low level moisture may result in some patchy fog tonight. Low temperatures tonight will vary from the the upper 30s in the northwest mountains to the lower 50s in the piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 500 AM EDT Wednesday... A broad trough will persist across the eastern half of the country within which will be embedded several more vigorous upper-level short waves or closed lows. The first one of such will moving northeast of the area Thursday while the second one approaches from the south and southwest. These systems are rather compact, but capable of producing substantial QPF over a relatively small area. Thursday will bring the lull in precipitation as the first one moves northeast of the area and the second one will be approaching but still be in Alabama during the day. Clouds will likely linger and there could be periods of drizzle and areas of fog, especially during the late night/early morning hours with abundant low-level moisture remaining in place Thursday night into Friday morning, the southeast U.S. system will take a turn to the northeast and lift through the area with a negative tilt. Dynamics may be sufficient enough for an isolated thunderstorm, mainly across NC or the VA Piedmont area. Rainfall amounts should be in the 1/2 to 1 inch range, which should not result in any significant flooding, but perhaps some nuisance poor drainage flooding and minor rises on certain rivers/creeks again, such as the Watauga River at Sugar Grove. As we move into Friday, the northern stream trough across the Great Lakes will deepen and absorb the southern stream short wave as it moves north through the Mid-Atlantic. This will finally eradicate the area of the deeper moisture in place throughout the earlier part of the week and bring a deepening northwest flow aloft to the area. Upslope rain and/or snow showers may be possible across the Alleghanys of eastern WV Friday night and Saturday as cold advection strengthens. Temperatures will trend from near normal at the beginning of the period to slightly below normal over the weekend as the trough deepens. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 500 AM EDT Wednesday... A large area of Canadian high pressure will build across the eastern U.S. under a slowly progressive upper ridge that will move from the central U.S. into the eastern U.S. at the beginning of the period. The increasingly strong upper ridge will block any further precipitation producing systems from reaching the area until perhaps the end of next week, with the focus for excessive rainfall and thunderstorms focusing across the Southern and Central Plains during most of this period. A notable warming trend is expected through the period as the upper ridge builds over the east and 850mb temperatures warm from near 0C on Sunday to +16C or better by the end of the week. This should bring highs in the 60s west to 70s east early in the week warming to highs in the 70s west to 80s east by the end of the period. It could well be our longest stretch of warm, springlike weather so far this year! && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 553 AM EDT Wednesday... Poor flying conditions will continue during the taf period with rain, and low clouds and fog. A vertically stacked low over North Carolina this morning will move eastward today into tonight. High pressure will continue to wedged down east of the mountains today. Greatly varying ceilings this morning will hinder aviation operations. Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will continue across the region today with a good chance of rain at TAF sites. Pockets of fog will continue this morning with some cooling, light winds and abundant low level moisture. The heaviest rain this morning has been across the southwest portion of the forecast area. As the upper trof starts to pull away this afternoon into this evening conditions will improve to VFR east of the Blue Ridge but expect MVFR/IFR to linger from the Ridge westward due to wind shifting to an upslope northwesterly direction. However, some breaks of sun in the east may create enough instability to get some thunder going so will mention VCTS at KLYH and KDAN toward the end of the period. Medium confidence in ceilings, visibilities and winds during the taf period. Extended Aviation Discussion... Unsettled weather conditions should continue for the remainder of this work week as another area of low pressure heads toward the Mid Atlantic. MVFR/IFR ceilings along with rain showers may take place during Thursday night and Friday. High pressure should build overhead to bring VFR conditions for all sites by Saturday afternoon. Good flying weather will persist through the remainder of this weekend. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...RAB LONG TERM...DS/RAB AVIATION...KK

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