Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 231441 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1041 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front slides through the region today. High pressure noses down from the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic late tonight into Thursday, then moves off the coast by Friday. Warmer air returns on the backside of the high Saturday along with increasing humidity and the threat for more rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1035 AM EDT Wednesday... An approaching cold front will generate showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon with the more widespread coverage occurring along and south of the VA/NC border. We lowered PoPs through the rest of the morning with a general peak in convection around 3PM-4PM. Storms will move south into central NC by 8PM. As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday... Front early this morning was lined up from PA southwest to KY/TN. A pre-frontal line of storms is weakening as it moves toward the Greenbrier Valley this morning, but should still see moderate to heavy rain into portions of Greenbrier and the Alleghanys before dawn. At the same time we have dense fog across portions of the mountains this morning where it has cleared. Will highlight this with a special weather statement for the morning rush. Not too much change in the forecast, as models favor an isolated coverage this morning once the line weakens mainly from the Buckingham VA area west-southwest into the mountains. Sfc front will slide to the mountains this morning, reaching the piedmont this afternoon. Instability increases southeast of the Blue Ridge this afternoon with SBCAPEs of 1500 to 2000 J/KG anticipated from Farmville to Wilkesboro and points southeast, with DCAPES around 1500 J/KG and Bulk shear of 30 kts. Will see some multicell clusters develop from southside VA to the NC foothills and move southeast out of our area by evening. SPC has a marginal risk roughly from Staunton River State Park VA southwest to Reidsville, NC. Leaning toward a slight westward trend to the outlook, though the upper levels winds are weaker toward the foothills. Drier air shifts toward the mountains of WV/VA north of Bluefield to Roanoke this evening then slowly edges southward overnight, but still some slowness in frontal boundary may keep the southeast in the soupy airmass one more night. Most of the convection will wane after midnight. Fog will form in the deeper valleys by dawn Thursday. Kept highs today running from the mid 70s to around 80 west, to mid to upper 80s east. Tonight lows will be a touch cooler over the mountains, but still 10 degrees above normal, from the lower 50s in the Greenbrier Valley, to mid to upper 50s rest of the mountains, surging up to around 60 Roanoke to Lynchburg north, and in the lower to mid 60s southeast to the NC foothills.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday... High pressure will waste no time sliding from the Great Lakes to off the mid Atlantic coast Thursday night, where it will remain into the weekend. This will bring most of the region a break in precipitation for Thursday and Friday, but there will still be a chance for showers and Thunderstorms mainly across the Mountain empire of VA and the mountains/foothills of NC. By Saturday return flow around the high will begin pushing abundant moisture back into the region as some weak short wave energy moves up form the south. This looks to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms back to the region for the start of the weekend. Slow storm motion and locally heavy rain may renew hydro concerns though after a couple of mainly dry days the soil may be amenable to more absorption. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday... This portion of the forecast period will be one characterized by a generous return of moisture to the area. The upper ridge over the mid-Atlantic will head southeast and become centered in the western Atlantic, east of GA/FL. This will again open the door for Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico moisture to stream into the region. Northern stream energy will again progress into or just north of the region along a baroclinic zone, allowing for coverage of showers and storms similar those those of recent days. We even may be influenced by moisture heading north from what may be a tropical system in the east Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will average five to ten degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 712 AM EDT Wednesday... Fog and low clouds will erode by 13-14z, with VFR thru this evening. Appears any threat of storms near a taf site will be Danville after 20z, but scattered nature so, have VCTS in to cover for now. Somewhat drier air works in but with ground moisture high, expect fog to form late tonight, with mainly MVFR to IFR at BCB with LIFR at LWB. Not as confident with fog at the other sites yet. .Extended Aviation Discussion... VFR Thursday and Friday. Tropical like moisture streams back north as a warm front moves through Saturday with a return to showers/storms and potential sub-VFR conditions and heavy rain thru the holiday weekend. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/WP NEAR TERM...RCS/WP SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...JH/RCS/WP

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