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793
FXUS61 KRNK 071826
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
226 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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The weather pattern will remain unsettled for much of the week with
a daily threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms through
Thursday. The risk of flash flooding will increase through the week,
with wet antecedent conditions and multiple, consecutive days
of showers and storms. Cooler and drier weather returns by the
weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening.
2. Main hazards are damaging winds and hail, and locally heavy
rain.

Mid and upper level ridging situated over the southeast continues to
build just west of the area through today, while a warm front lifts
farther northward into the upper Mid Atlantic. The morning sounding
showed mostly westerly to northwesterly winds from the surface to
aloft, so thinking coverage of storms today will be limited,
especially in the east where downsloping will suppress storm
development. However, model soundings on some of the CAMs suggest
surface flow turning more southwesterly by the mid to late evening
today, giving a veering wind profile, and more favorable for
thunderstorm development. But, by that time of day, temperatures
will be decreasing with the loss of daytime heating, so
atmospheric instability will be on a downward trend. That all
being said, overall thinking is a limited coverage of any
storms today, but any storms that do develop have the potential
to be severe, with the main hazards being damaging wind and
hail, timing between 6 PM and 9/10 PM.

Temperatures will be in the upper 70s in the west, and mid to upper
80s in the east today. Tonight, lows will be in the low to mid
60s. Patchy fog may again form late tonight through tomorrow
morning.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1. Showers and storms possible again late Wednesday.

A surface low tracks into and across the northeastern US, with
a slow moving cold front trailing through the Mid Atlantic into
the Central Appalachians, keeping the chances for showers in the
west through Wednesday morning. A break in the precipitation
through the middle part of the day is expected as the upper
shortwave associated with Tuesday`s system moves farther east.
Westerly winds increase behind this departing system, also
helping to bring an end to the lingering showers. The
approaching cold front will serve as a focus for shower and
thunderstorm development late Wednesday and into Thursday.
Mostly sunny skies Wednesday and plentiful atmospheric moisture
will result in greater instability. With better forcing at the
surface and aloft, there is a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms late Wednesday, main hazards being damaging wind,
large hail, and heavy rain, given above the continued normal
PWATs.

Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, with highs in the
upper 70s in the west, mid to upper 80s in the east.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

  - Numerous thunderstorms Thursday
  - Cooler at the end of the week

A surface low pressure system tracks from the Ohio Valley to off the
East Coast Thursday, pushing a significant cold front through the
Mid Atlantic region. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing
Thursday morning ahead of the front.

Deeper moisture pushes south through the Carolinas on Thursday night
and Friday as precipitable water values drop below an inch and
surface dew points lower into the 40s. At upper levels flow becomes
more west to northwest as a long wave through develops over the
northeast United States. A short wave coming through the northwest
flow will bring a cold front through the region Saturday night and
Sunday. This will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms
mainly in the mountains.

Maximum temperatures Friday through Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees
below normal, with a gradual warming trend next week. The coldest
overnight lows will be Friday night. A few of the typically favored
locations may cool into the 30s.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Tuesday...

Mostly VFR to MVFR conditions presently observed across the
area. A few isolated showers have begun to pop up in far
southwestern VA and northwest NC. Expecting only isolated to
scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms today, coverage
limited by the westerly winds at the surface and aloft. Greatest
chances for storms are over the mountains, so have included
VCTS for KLWB, KBLF, and KBCB. Storms that do develop this
afternoon and evening have the potential to produce damaging
wind gusts and hail. Coverage of showers and storms will
decrease after sunset, and any lingering showers should diminish
after midnight.

Ceilings lower to sub-VFR Wednesday morning west of the Blue
Ridge, improving after sunrise. Otherwise, ceilings east of the
mountains should remain VFR through the TAF period. Reductions
in visibilities from patchy fog are possible again for a few
hours during the morning hours given ample moisture and clearer
skies in the east. Patchy fog is also possible in the valleys,
like KLWB and KBCB.

Winds turn southwesterly later Tuesday evening, and will be
west-southwesterly through Wednesday at 5 to 10 knots. Winds
gusts may reach 15 to 20 knots this afternoon across the higher
elevations, and again Wednesday afternoon.

Forecast confidence is average.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Unsettled weather is expected for much of the week. Daily
threat of SHRA/TSRA through at least Friday. This will bring
periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds
through Wednesday will favor a SW direction and may be gusty at
times.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS/BMG
NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AS/BMG