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174
FXUS61 KRNK 191758
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
158 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon for the mountains, otherwise cool high pressure will
build in from the east. High pressure will keep our area mostly
dry Monday through Wednesday. A frontal system approaches late
in the week to bring the next chance for rain. Temperatures
will warm through the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Drier today, but still a slight chance for mountain showers.

2) Sunny and dry tomorrow.

Still under the influence of high pressure wedging cool moist
air east of the mountains. As such, still widespread cloudiness
across the Piedmont areas of Virginia and North Carolina with a
persistent ENE wind. West of the Blue Ridge has seen decent
clearing late this morning and especially this afternoon so far.

Weak convergence across the West Virginia mountains may allow
for a few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm to
develop through early evening. A sliver of instability runs
through the western portions of the CWA as well, so best
corridor of any precipitation today will be from the NW NC
mountains into southeast West Virginia. Any activity the
develops will diminish with loss of heating late this evening.

Dry with clearer skies tomorrow as ridging begins to build
overhead and the area loses the influence of northeast flow.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Dry weather for most through the period.
2. Temperatures warming to above normal.

The beginning of the work week will feature 500mb ridging over the
southeastern US, and surface high pressure over the Mid Atlantic,
which will keep the weather dry for most of the area through at
least Wednesday. A weak upper shortwave crossing the area may
generate some showers and possible storms in the mountains on
Tuesday afternoon and evening, but coverage will be isolated to
scattered.

By Tuesday, an upper trough develops over the Rockies, and a surface
low will track northeastward through the central US and into the
upper Midwest by the midweek. Southwesterly flow ahead of the front
will bring warmer and more moist air into the region, thus Wednesday
looks to be the warmest day of the short term forecast period, as
high temperatures reach the mid to upper 80s areawide.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Showers and storms possible Thursday and Friday.
2. Temperatures near to above normal.

A surface low will move into southeastern Canada by the second half
of the work week. A trailing cold front will extend from this low
across the country, and track eastward, approaching the Mid Atlantic
by Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as the
front approaches and then crosses the area through Thursday. The
front remains to the south across the Carolinas through Friday,
although some long range deterministic models differ on where the
front will stall. Another piece of shortwave energy aloft moves
along the front will spark some showers and thunderstorms as it
reaches the area late Friday into Saturday. High pressure builds
back in over the region behind the front, bringing an end to the
precipitation, keeping Sunday mostly dry.

Clouds and rain will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler on
Thursday and Friday, but gradually warming again over the weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...

Widespread MVFR clouds remain for areas east of the Blue Ridge
Mountains due to cool northeast flow continuing. Some MVFR over
the western mountains as well. Should gradually improve through
the evening hours and overall prevailing VFR can be expected by
tomorrow as skies become clearer. However, some low chance of some
lingering MVFR cloudiness into Central Virginia.

A few mountain showers over West Virginia are possible through
early evening, particularly LWB/BLF having the highest chance.
Any of this activity will diminish after sunset.

Some fog development is possible overnight and could result in
several hours of IFR/LIFR at multiple terminals.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A better opportunity for VFR is expected Tuesday into
Wednesday. Thursday expect a chance for showers and
thunderstorms as a front nears.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG