Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 180546 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 146 AM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level shortwave ridge will build over the region tonight into Wednesday. An area of low pressure will cross the Great Lakes region Wednesday night, bringing its trailing cold front through our area. A broad area of high pressure will build into the area on Friday, and be the dominate weather feature through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 810 PM EDT Tuesday... Allowed Wind Advisory to expire. While the low level jet is actually forecast to increase overnight, the inversion level slides upward (gains altitude), so we are actually expecting a decrease of wind speed as the night progresses. Generally fair weather anticipated overnight. As the night progresses, cloud cover will increase in the form of high level cirrus in association with an approaching shortwave trough in the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Also, low level moisture will begin returning to the southwestern parts of the area. Upslope low level cloud cover, and perhaps an isolated shower or two, is expected in the Bluefield, WV region towards daybreak Wednesday. A cold front associated with the upper stream system will be nearing the region late Wednesday afternoon. A few isolated showers will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening across the far western section because of this feature. Low temperatures tonight will have a gradient a bit different than usual. The coldest temperatures will be in the north, low to mid 30s, with the mildest temperatures in the south, low to mid 40s. Highs on Wednesday will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the mountains with low to mid 70s across the Piedmont, with a few spots seeing the upper 70s in NC. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday... Fast moving low pressure will move through the Ohio valley Wednesday night and into New England. This will push a strong cold front through the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region with a good chance of showers west of the Blue Ridge. As the cold air moves in wet snow will become more prevalent at the higher elevations west of the Ridge Thursday into Thursday night with a slushy coating possible on the hilltops. The cold air moving in will also allow better downward momentum transfer in the boundary layer with strong gusty winds expected Wednesday night through Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure will then build in and bring an end to lingering snow showers west of the Blue Ridge along with calmer conditions for the end of the week. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday... Collapsing upper ridge will allow a southern stream closed low to move through the southeastern US this weekend. Guidance is trending further south with the surface low along tracking along the Gulf coast with a strong wedge of high pressure east of the mountains. This will help suppress precipitation to the south and lower our chances for precipitation through the first part of next week. This pattern will also keep the region on the cold side of the low with below normal temperatures expected this weekend and into the first part of nest week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 135 AM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions will continue today and into this evening Gusty conditions will continue this evening with 40kt gusts possible at the higher elevations. A decrease in wind speeds is expected early this morning with the valleys becoming near calm with 30kt gusts still possible at the ridge tops. A warm front will pass through North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia this morning, turning winds to the southwest. Winds will gust up to 30 knots after 14Z/10AM as daytime mixing increases. High confidence of a layer of scattered to broken mid and high clouds north of the warm front. With deepening westerly winds and increasing low level moisture this afternoon and tonight there will be MVFR ceilings on the west slopes of the central Appalachians but high confidence that these lower ceilings will remain just west of KLWB and KBLF. A cold front approaches the Mid Atlantic area late tonight. Medium confidence that any showers will remain west of the region through the 06Z end of the TAF forecast period. Winds become west behind the front with gusts up to 30 knots. Extended Aviation Discussion... Sub-VFR cigs again Thursday with upslope and low level moisture in the mountains. VFR east of the Blue Ridge. VFR returns Friday although gusty north winds to persist as high pressure slowly builds in from the northwest. Winds should diminish by Saturday with VFR ceilings and visibilities. Clouds will begin to creep back into the area on Sunday in advance of an approaching low in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. However, cigs should remain VFR while the ceiling heights lower and clouds thicken. SCT MVFR showers are possible in southern Virginia and northern North Carolina Sunday night into Monday morning.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS/PM SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...AMS/KK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.