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000
FXUS61 KRNK 181920
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
320 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Above normal warmth will continue into Friday followed by a
cool down for the weekend. After a clear night tonight, clouds
will be on the increase. A cold front over the Ohio Valley will
move east, crossing the Mid-Atlantic region Friday. This front
will bring showers and a few thunderstorms, but limited
rainfall. In general, expecting a quarter inch or less of rain,
with isolated amounts of one half inch where thunderstorms
occur. Temperatures will return to a more seasonal level
Saturday.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1. Clear Tonight, Cloudy Friday

2. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday.

Dry weather expected through tonight under mainly clear skies.
Some increase in cloud cover is anticipated late tonight in
advance of an approaching MCS from the Ohio Valley.

Friday, a cold front will sweep across the eastern U.S. in
advance of a mid-level trough, providing enough low-level ascent
to support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across our
forecast area. Timing is critical with models bringing 1 or 2
rounds of activity across the mountains Friday. First wave of
activity is expected to be pre-frontal...basically the remnants
from Thursday`s Ohio Valley MCS. Model consensus is to bring
this across the mountains Friday morning, but weakening with
time. The morning activity may dictate whether there will be
redevelopment during the afternoon. Morning clouds and precip
tend to hinder or significantly delay afternoon deep
convection. Convective allowing models suggest redevelopment
along the actual cold front Friday afternoon, but hesitant on
building up enough CAPE to support anything significant with
respect to coverage or severity. For now will broad brush the
pops, weighting the highest chance from measurable rainfall
across the mountains (0.25 to 0.50) and then to a much lesser
extent east of the Blue Ridge (0.10 or less).

In spite of cloud cover Friday, it will remain warm with
temperatures remaining above the seasonal norm...highs in the
70s.
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.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1: Clouds linger early Saturday, then clearing.

2: Temperatures cooler but seasonal.

Cold front passage Friday night will bring seasonably cool air
into the region from the northwest. Clouds may linger but
precip threat should wane as subsidence increases.

The actual front is expected to settle just south of our area
in the Carolinas, but high pressure to our north will nose its
way into the areas keeping rain chances suppressed mainly south
of the VA/NC border. Clouds are expected to thin across the
Virginias, but persist over the Carolinas.

Temperatures should return to near normal with highs ranging
from the 60s mountains to the lower 70s piedmont.
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 150 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1: Rain chances Sunday and Wednesday

2: Cooler than normal temperatures Sunday and Monday, rebounding on
Tuesday

High pressure centered over the southern Plains will stretch
eastward over Virginia, helping to keep most of the area dry Sunday.
Meanwhile, a disturbance in eastern Texas will track to the east
across the Gulf States, then along a surface boundary over the
Carolinas. Latest models are trending a more southern track with
this disturbance, which will reduce rainfall coverage over RNK`s
forecast area to just along and south of the VA/NC border. Timing of
rain continues to be Sunday afternoon, exiting east in the evening.
A cold front will sweep across the region as this disturbance moves
off the Carolina Coast. High temperatures Sunday will range from the
mid 50s west of the Blue Ridge to the mid 60s east. These
temperatures are 5F-10F cooler than normal.

The center of the southern Plain ridge will move over the area
Monday, keeping temperatures slightly cooler than normal. A warm
front is expected to pass over the region Tuesday, allowing
temperatures to become warmer than normal. A strong cold front is
expected to pass over the area Wednesday, dropping temperatures
below normal to end the week.
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.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR expected through tonight, winds diminishing at sunset.

Clouds will be on the increase Friday with an opportunity for
showers and a few thunderstorms. Watch for remnant MCS in the
Ohio Valley to cross the mountains Friday morning, but
weakening with time. Rain cooled air may generate a MVFR cig but
not confident this will occur since the MCS will be dissipating
as it comes across the mountains.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

A cold front will cross the area late Friday with scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and
evening. The cold front will exit to the south and east by
Saturday, but some MVFR ceilings may linger in the mountains
through Saturday morning. North winds will provide some
clearing for late Saturday, but more moisture may surge
northeastward during Sunday and Monday to bring another chance
of rain.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM