Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 130350 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1150 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure off the North Carolina coast will lift northeast tonight into Tuesday. An Arctic air mass will spread toward the region during midweek behind the departing snow storm, bringing gusty winds, below freezing temperatures, and mountain snow showers. Much warmer temperatures and a chance of rain will arrive for the weekend as the upper air pattern undergoes some significant changes. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1145 PM EDT Monday... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the North Carolina piedmont. Temperatures not expected to drop below freezing until around 1AM but then hazard will continue into the morning travel time. In North Carolina mountains, snowfall will be largely confined to western slopes. Current Winter Weather Advisory addresses minor snow amounts and Black Ice threat into the mourning. While temperatures will take longer to rise above freezing on Tuesday...indirect March sun and warm ground will liming threat of ice after 10AM. No change to Winter Weather Advisory for Western Greenbrier County where the heaviest upslope snow showers will persist. Again any melting that took place between when the stratiform snow ended and the snow showers began will refreeze overnight. Closed shortwave energy crossing the southern Appalachians into tonight with deepening coastal low off Carolinas that will track up the East Coast reaching Nova Scotia by Wednesday. Have gone closer to colder guidance for lows tonight with the new snow on the ground. Have also spread snow showers east of the Blue Ridge into early Tuesday morning based on radar trends.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM EDT Monday... A broad area of low pressure over the Great Lakes Tuesday will drift eastward over New England by Wednesday night. This low will track to the northeast and away from the region on Thursday. While this low is making its journey eastward, moist northwest low level flow and a series of short waves will bring continuous snow showers/flurries to the mountains. For the most part, accumulating snow through the period will be along western slopes of SE WV/SW VA where 2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts are possible. Most of the snow will accumulate at night as high sun angle should melt some of the snow during the day. Accumulating snow for all the mountains from bands/squalls will occur late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Snow amounts will range from 1 to 2 inches across SW VA to NW NC mountains. Upslope area of western Greenbrier to Summers County WV could see an additional 2 to 4 inches. The snow will begin to taper off Wednesday afternoon with winds increasing along higher elevations. Strong and gusty winds are possible across the mountains into Thursday night. With no significant pressure rises or strong cold air advection, no wind headlines are expected through the period. However, wind chills values across the mountains could drop into the single digits each morning, teens east of the Blue Ridge. High pressure tracks along the Gulf Thursday, edging northward into the region during the afternoon to bring an end to the snow and wind. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Monday... A mid-level disturbance will track along a cold front and over the region Friday. At this point, temperatures look warm enough for this to be an all rain event. This disturbance quickly moves east followed by a cold frontal passage Friday evening. Cold high pressure will keep the area dry through Saturday night. A warm front aloft is expected to move over this weakening high pressure on Sunday. A second stronger warm front will move over the region on Monday. Both of these systems will bring light rain into the area. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 810 PM EDT Monday... Western edge of large shield of clouds and precipitation was near KROA at the 00Z/8PM start of the TAF forecast period. Expect this back edge to move slowly east, reaching KDAN and KLYH by 03Z/11PM with high confidence in this timing. Upslope IFR to MVFR clouds have filled in over the central Appalachians with snow showers along the western slopes. High confidence of persistent snow showers at KLWB and KBLF with occasional brief drops to MVFR or lower visibility due to moderate to heavy snow. Wind speeds increase from the northwest overnight as a deepening low off the coast of North Carolina tracks northeast. Gusty winds will continue through Tuesday afternoon. Extended Aviation Discussion... The western mountains will see lingering MVFR conditions with upslope clouds and snow showers through Wednesday, with VFR conditions east of the Blue Ridge. Conditions are expected to improve in all areas by the weekend with a notable warming trend. && .EQUIPMENT...
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As of 1100 PM EDT Monday... The Mount Jefferson NWR will remain off the air until further notice awaiting a part that was damaged during a high wind event/power outage over a week ago. Inclement winter weather could further delay the repair of this site until midweek. Richlands NWR was also remained out of service. Please seek alternate sources for your weather information, such as adjacent NWRs (Roanoke, Hinton WV, Lynchburg, South Boston, Johnson City TN, Beckley WV, etc.), commercial sources, and the internet. You can always access our web page at
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ001- 004>006-018. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for WVZ508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/RAB NEAR TERM...AMS/KK SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...KK/RAB EQUIPMENT...AMS/RAB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.