Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 171937 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 337 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level shortwave ridge will build over the region tonight into Wednesday. An area of low pressure will cross the Great Lakes region Wednesday night, bringing its trailing cold front through our area. A broad area of high pressure will build into the area on Friday, and be the dominate weather feature through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday... Gusty conditions continue to prevail across the region this afternoon, with a Wind Advisory in effect until 8pm for counties along the crest of the Blue Ridge from Bent Mountain southwest into the Northern Mountains of North Carolina. While the low level jet is actually forecast to increase overnight, the inversion level slides upward, so we are actually expecting a decrease wind speed as the night progresses. Drier air is continuing to erode the cloud cover from the southwest to the northeast, and that trend will continue through the evening with very little cloud cover remaining after sunset. As the night progresses, cloud cover will return in the form of high level cirrus in association with an approaching shortwave trough in the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Also, low level moisture will begin returning to the southwestern parts of the area. Upslope low level cloud cover, and perhaps an isolated shower or two, is expected in the Bluefield, WV region towards daybreak Wednesday. A cold front associated with the upper stream system will be nearing the region late Wednesday afternoon. A few isolated showers will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening across the far western section because of this feature. Low temperatures tonight will have a gradient a bit different than usual. The coldest temperatures will be in the north, low to mid 30s, with the mildest temperatures in the south, low to mid 40s. Highs on Wednesday will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the mountains with low to mid 70s across the Piedmont, with a few spots seeing the upper 70s in NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday... Fast moving low pressure will move through the Ohio valley Wednesday night and into New England. This will push a strong cold front through the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region with a good chance of showers west of the Blue Ridge. As the cold air moves in wet snow will become more prevalent at the higher elevations west of the Ridge Thursday into Thursday night with a slushy coating possible on the hilltops. The cold air moving in will also allow better downward momentum transfer in the boundary layer with strong gusty winds expected Wednesday night through Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure will then build in and bring an end to lingering snow showers west of the Blue Ridge along with calmer conditions for the end of the week.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday... Collapsing upper ridge will allow a southern stream closed low to move through the southeastern US this weekend. Guidance is trending further south with the surface low along tracking along the Gulf coast with a strong wedge of high pressure east of the mountains. This will help suppress precipitation to the south and lower our chances for precipitation through the first part of next week. This pattern will also keep the region on the cold side of the low with below normal temperatures expected this weekend and into the first part of nest week.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday... MVFR cloud cover will continue to erode southwest to northeast this afternoon. Only KLWB has a lingering MVFR ceiling, but expect that this will last no later than 19Z/3PM. Drier air across the region will help maintain VFR this evening and most of the overnight hours. A stiff upslope northwest is expected to pool advancing moisture late tonight in the KBLF region with a return of sub-VFR clouds. These are expected then to continue through the conclusion of the 24 hour TAF time at 18Z/2PM Wednesday. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF forecast period. Gusty conditions will continue this afternoon and early evening with 40kt gusts possible at the higher elevations. A decrease is expected overnight with the valleys becoming near calm with 30kt gusts still possible at the ridge tops. Winds will remain an issue through the day espcly across western locations where gusts may exceed 40 kts at times during deeper mixing this afternoon. VFR should prevail overnight with some influx of mid/high cloud canopy during the evening and perhaps a period of sub-VFR lower cigs around KBLF late given upslope flow. Surface winds should be lighter except along the ridges where gusts to 30 kts may still occur. Extended Aviation Discussion... Gusty conditions will continue Wednesday afternoon with KBLF returning to VFR. Next front arrives Wed night-Thu with a chance of showers, with gusty winds and sub-VFR cigs again Thursday in the mountains. VFR returns Friday although gusty northerly winds to persist as high pressure slowly builds in from the northwest. Winds should diminish on Saturday with VFR continuing to start the weekend. Clouds will begin to creep back into the area on Sunday in advance of an approaching low in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. However, cigs should remain VFR while the ceiling heights lower and clouds thicken. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ015>017-022. NC...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ001-002-018. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...DS/WERT

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