-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
821
FXUS61 KRNK 180755
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
355 AM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure over the Rockies will move northeast today and
tonight pushing a warm front north through the Mid Atlantic
region today, then a cold front east across the area early
Thursday. A large area of high pressure will build in behind
this system and will cover much of the eastern United States
into Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday low pressure will move
across the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast states.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 335 AM EDT Wednesday...

Some stronger wind gusts, in the 40 to 60 mph range, still being
reported at West Jefferson (KGEV) and a few personal weather
stations at higher elevations in Watauga and Ashe Counties in
North Carolina. Bufkit suggests the winds at these elevations
will gradually diminish and will be less than 40 mph by 11Z/7AM.

A warm front was east-west along the Kentucky/Tennesse and
Virginia/North Carolina border early this morning. This front
will move north this morning and will be into central
Pennsylvania by afternoon. Low pressure will track northeast
into the Ohio Valley overnight. Expect the cold front associated
with this low to reach the western side of the central
Appalachians just after midnight.

Expecting mainly scattered to broken mid and high clouds today,
mainly along and north of the warm front. Strong warm air
advection, afternoon sun, and deep mixing with a southwest wind
will all result in temperatures well into the 70s for most
locations in southwest Virginia, southeast West Virginia and
northwest North Carolina. Will stay on the warmer side of
guidance for maximum temperatures. Low level moisture and
upslope increase tonight. Best chance of showers will be in the
mountains. Cold air advection does not begin until after the
overnight low. Guidance should be close for minimum
temperatures.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...

A cold front will sweep across the region Thursday morning.
Precipitation (rain/snow) chances will primarily be along western
slopes of southeast West Virginia with sprinkles/flurries across the
rest of the mountains. Snow accumulations in western Greenbrier may
amount to half an inch for elevations above 3000 feet in the
morning, little to none in the afternoon.

Through the day and into the evening, strong gusty winds are
expected across the mountains and into the foothills. Wind gusts may
approach advisory level along either side of the Blue Ridge. High
pressure will build over the region Friday morning and linger into
Saturday.

With cold air coming in behind the front through the day, mountain
high temperatures (mid to upper 40s) Thursday may occur before noon.
East of the Blue Ridge, high temperatures may peak early in the
afternoon with a range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. As winds
decouple overnight, temperatures will drop into the 30s. Since the
growing season has started across the foothills and piedmont
counties, a frost advisory maybe needed for Friday morning. Abundant
sunshine and dry air will lead to temperatures recovering Friday
into the 50s west to 60s east. Temperatures will warm a few more
degrees (close to seasonal levels) on Saturday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Collapsing upper ridge will allow a southern stream closed low to move
through the southeastern US this weekend. Guidance is trending further
south with the surface low along tracking along the Gulf coast with a
strong wedge of high pressure east of the mountains. This will help
suppress precipitation to the south and lower our chances for
precipitation through the first part of next week. This pattern will
also keep the region on the cold side of the low with below normal
temperatures expected this weekend and into the first part of
next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions will continue today and into this evening Gusty
conditions will continue this evening with 40kt gusts possible
at the higher elevations. A decrease in wind speeds is expected
early this morning with the valleys becoming near calm with 30kt
gusts still possible at the ridge tops. A warm front will pass
through North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia this morning,
turning winds to the southwest. Winds will gust up to 30 knots
after 14Z/10AM as daytime mixing increases.

High confidence of a layer of scattered to broken mid and high
clouds north of the warm front. With deepening westerly winds
and increasing low level moisture this afternoon and tonight
there will be MVFR ceilings on the west slopes of the central
Appalachians but high confidence that these lower ceilings will
remain just west of KLWB and KBLF.

A cold front approaches the Mid Atlantic area late tonight.
Medium confidence that any showers will remain west of the
region through the 06Z end of the TAF forecast period. Winds
become west behind the front with gusts up to 30 knots.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Sub-VFR cigs again Thursday with upslope and low level moisture
in the mountains. VFR east of the Blue Ridge.

VFR returns Friday although gusty north winds to persist as
high pressure slowly builds in from the northwest. Winds should
diminish by Saturday with VFR ceilings and visibilities.

Clouds will begin to creep back into the area on Sunday in
advance of an approaching low in the Lower Mississippi River
Valley. However, cigs should remain VFR while the ceiling heights
lower and clouds thicken. SCT MVFR showers are possible in
southern Virginia and northern North Carolina Sunday night into
Monday morning.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/KK