Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 181837 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 237 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will move through the middle Atlantic region and push a cold front through the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region. This will bring very windy conditions, along with much colder temperatures, along with some showers west of the Blue Ridge and even some west snow for the higher elevations. High pressure then builds in with fair conditions and slightly warmer temperatures into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 225 PM EDT Wednesday... Low pressure will move through the middle Atlantic region and push a cold front through the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region. This will bring an abrupt end to our one day of spring as much colder air moves in on strong gusty northwest winds. Expect rain showers with the front west of the Blue Ridge to transition to upslope rain/snow showers on Thursday with some minor snow accumulation for the higher elevations. The upslope precipitation will be decreasing during Thursday afternoon. The winds behind the front will become quite strong as cold air advection creates efficient downward momentum transfer with gusts around 50MPH at the higher elevations from the Blue Ridge westward starting around Midnight and continuing through tomorrow. Gusts will not be quite as strong east of the Ridge and will generally wait for the arrival of netter mixing with diurnal heating by mid/late morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday... A cold front will sweep across the region Thursday morning. Precipitation (rain/snow) chances will primarily be along western slopes of southeast West Virginia with sprinkles/flurries across the rest of the mountains. Snow accumulations in western Greenbrier may amount to half an inch for elevations above 3000 feet in the morning, little to none in the afternoon. Through the day and into the evening, strong gusty winds are expected across the mountains and into the foothills. Wind gusts may approach advisory level along either side of the Blue Ridge. High pressure will build over the region Friday morning and linger into Saturday. With cold air coming in behind the front through the day, mountain high temperatures (mid to upper 40s) Thursday may occur before noon. East of the Blue Ridge, high temperatures may peak early in the afternoon with a range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. As winds decouple overnight, temperatures will drop into the 30s. Since the growing season has started across the foothills and piedmont counties, a frost advisory maybe needed for Friday morning. Abundant sunshine and dry air will lead to temperatures recovering Friday into the 50s west to 60s east. Temperatures will warm a few more degrees (close to seasonal levels) on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday... Collapsing upper ridge will allow a southern stream closed low to move through the southeastern US this weekend. Guidance is trending further south with the surface low along tracking along the Gulf coast with a strong wedge of high pressure east of the mountains. This will help suppress precipitation to the south and lower our chances for precipitation through the first part of next week. This pattern will also keep the region on the cold side of the low with below normal temperatures expected this weekend and into the first part of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday... Low pressure will move through the middle Atlantic region and push a cold front through the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region. So after VFR conditions to start off the period, locations west of the Blue Ridge will trend to generally MVFR, possibly IFR, as the front brings upslope showers to the region. Colder air moving in will gradually mix/change to snow showers. Don`t expect much spill over past the Ridge so will maintain a VFR forecast in the east. Conditions will become quite windy behind the front as cold air moves in and makes for efficient momentum transfer of vigorous low level winds to the surface. Expect the strong gusts to make their way east of the Blue Ridge primarily with onset of heating and better diurnal mixing. Gusts AOA 40kts can be expected along/west of the Blue Ridge, around 30kt to the east. Extended Aviation Discussion... VFR returns Friday although gusty north winds to persist as high pressure slowly builds in from the northwest. Winds should diminish by Saturday with VFR ceilings and visibilities. Clouds will begin to creep back into the area on Sunday in advance of an approaching low in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. However, cigs should remain VFR while the ceiling heights lower and clouds thicken. SCT MVFR showers are possible in southern Virginia and northern North Carolina Sunday night into Monday morning.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...MBS/RCS AVIATION...MBS/AMS

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