Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3

000
FNUS71 KRNK 251426
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Lake Sherwood Dam and Piles...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1026 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0300 EDT on March 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

...Enhanced Fire Danger for Southeast West Virginia Today
and Early this Evening...

High pressure will keep the weather dry through early Tuesday
morning.

Relative humidities this afternoon drop into the 20 to 25
percent range with increasing easterly winds. Areas in far
western and southwestern Virginia will see gusts into the
30 mph range by this afternoon/evening.

Moisture increases tonight and tomorrow ahead of an
approaching cold front, which will bring a chance
for rain to the area Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.
Arrival time of the rain at the burn site will be the early
afternoon with better coverage by the late afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 33.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........East 6 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2100 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................4.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      3 AM   5 AM
Sky (%).........50     61
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0
Temp............36     34
RH..............74     79
20 ft wind......E 6    E 5
20 ft wind gust.10     7
Mix hgt (ft)....500    400
Mixing wind......E 7    E 6
LVORI...........3      4
ADI.............4      4
Haines index....4      4
VRate mph-ft/1K.3      2

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain early in the afternoon. Chance of rain
                    late in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the southeast
                    7 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 5 to 14 mph increasing to 13 to 16
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (29000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 to 41.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........65     79     69     76     81     84
Weather cov.....                     S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      10     20     30     30
Temp............34     33     39     46     51     50
RH..............82     76     61     50     47     55
20 ft wind......E 5    E 5    SE 6   SE 7   SE 8   SE 7
20 ft wind gust.7      6      11     14     14     13
Mix hgt (ft)....400    400    1300   1800   2100   1700
Mixing wind......E 6    E 6    SE 12  SE 15  SE 16  SE 15
LVORI...........5      4      2      1      1      1
ADI.............4      6      19     35     41     32
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      3
VRate mph-ft/1K.2      3      14     28     33     25

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    in the evening and overnight, then rain likely
                    overnight.
CWR (0.01 in).......50 percent increasing to 60 percent overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 2 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (900 knot-ft).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................2 to 18.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........85     87     87     87     87     87
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............50     50     50     50     60     60
Temp............48     45     44     44     44     43
RH..............66     75     79     82     85     90
20 ft wind......SE 7   SE 6   SE 6   S 6    S 6    S 5
20 ft wind gust.12     12     12     11     10     8
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   900    700    700    800    600
Mixing wind......SE 10  SE 6   SE 6   SE 7   SE 6   SE 3
LVORI...........3      4      4      4      5      6
ADI.............18     5      6      6      4      2
Haines index....3      3      2      2      2      3
VRate mph-ft/1K.14     5      4      5      5      2

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain likely
                    early in the morning, then chance of rain early
                    in the morning.
CWR (0.01 in).......60 percent decreasing to 50 percent early in
                    the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph in the
                    late morning and early afternoon, then shifting
                    to the southwest around 6 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 2 to 3 mph shifting to the south late
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (800 knot-ft).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................1 to 8.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........86        84        78        74
Weather cov.....LIKELY    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....RAIN      RAIN      RAIN      RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............60        50        50        50
Temp............43        45        51        57
RH..............92        89        79        65
20 FT wind......S 4G7     S 4G7     SW 6G10   SW 6G11
Mix hgt (ft)....400       700       1900      3300
Mixing wind......E 2       E 2       SE 3      S 3
LVORI...........7         6         4         3
ADI.............1         3         7         8
Haines index....3         3         3         4
VRate mph-ft/1K.1         2         7         10

$$
Forecaster...Sleighter
Requested by...Colleen Urffer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2408384.0/RNK
.DELDT 03/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL colleen.urffer@usda.gov


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.