Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FNUS71 KRNK 211216
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Anderson Burn...NCFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
816 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on March 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Expect abundant sunshine today, with wind speeds significantly
lower than those observed on Wednesday. Winds will shift from
northeast this morning and afternoon, becoming more northwest
during the evening.

Despite lower wind speeds, minimum RH values will again fall
to 17 percent allowing finer fuels to remain dry.

Humidity will be higher on Friday as low pressure approaches.
Expect widespread wetting rainfall Friday evening into early
Saturday afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 5 mph early in the
                    morning becoming light.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........North 5 to 6 mph shifting to the west around 5
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (19700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................6 to 26.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............43  46  49  51  53  55  58  59  60  61
RH..............41  34  31  28  25  22  20  18  17  17
20 FT wind dir..N   NE  NE  N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  W
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   4   3   3   4   4   3   2
20 FT wind gust.7   8   7   6   6   5   6   6   5   4
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 2.5 2.9 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.9 4.9
Mixng wind dir..N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
Mixng wind spd..6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............6   18  17  19  21  23  24  25  26  26
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRate mph-ft/1K.2   14  13  16  17  19  20  21  22  23

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northeast around 3 mph early in the evening,
                    then shifting to the east 3 to 5 mph in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................2 to 24.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........0      3      5      6      19     30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............59     51     48     45     43     41
RH..............20     30     35     40     44     50
20 ft wind......SW 2   SE 2   E 2    E 2    E 3    NE 4
20 ft wind gust.4      4      4      4      5      6
Mix hgt (ft)....4500   400    400    400    400    400
Mixing wind.....NW 5   NE 3   E 3    E 3    E 3    E 3
LVORI...........2      2      2      2      2      2
ADI.............24     2      2      2      2      2
Haines index....5      5      5      5      4      4
VRate mph-ft/1K.21     1      1      1      1      1

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain early in the afternoon. Chance of rain
                    late in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph early in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........East 6 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (24900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 to 24.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........30     61     68     74     81     87
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      10     10     20     40
Temp............38     38     44     50     54     55
RH..............60     73     72     63     59     61
20 ft wind......NE 4   NE 5   E 5    E 6    E 6    E 6
20 ft wind gust.6      6      7      7      8      8
Mix hgt (ft)....400    600    1400   2200   3000   2800
Mixing wind.....E 6    E 8    E 8    E 8    E 9    E 10
LVORI...........3      3      3      2      2      2
ADI.............3      9      13     16     22     24
Haines index....4      3      3      3      3      3
VRate mph-ft/1K.2      5      11     17     27     29

$$
Forecaster...Silverman
Requested by...Bryan Singleton
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2408033.0/RNK
.DELDT 03/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bryan.singleton@ncagr.gov


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