000
FNUS71 KRNK 191025
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Blue Panther...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
625 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1800 EDT on April 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
More clouds today with scattered showers/few storms. Front
moves across this evening, with south winds turning west.
Poor vent rates today into tonight. Dry weather expected
Saturday with better mixing, lower RH and more sun.


.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly to Mostly cloudy (40-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR (0.01 in).......40 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 5 to 8 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 2 to 5 mph shifting to the northwest
                    3 to 10 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1500 knot-ft).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................2 to 9.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........73  48  55  77  65  58  50  44  55  58  69  70
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC SCH
CWR.............40  40  30  20  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0
Temp............67  65  62  60  59  57  55  54  53  52  51  50
RH..............64  68  73  77  82  86  88  88  86  83  79  76
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..6   5   6   6   6   7   7   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.10  10  11  10  10  13  13  14  14  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1
Mixng wind dir..S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW  N
Mixng wind spd..3   5   5   3   3   2   2   3   5   7   9   10
LVORI...........3   3   3   4   5   6   6   6   5   4   4   4
ADI.............8   3   3   3   2   2   2   3   4   6   8   9
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1K.6   5   4   3   2   2   2   3   3   6   10  11

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 5 to 9 mph increasing to west 17 to
                    22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (101200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (111300
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................7 early in the morning increasing to 97 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........56     42     36     26     22     33
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............49     51     54     57     60     61
RH..............75     64     50     38     30     29
20 ft wind......NW 8   NW 8   NW 8   NW 9   W 9    W 10
20 ft wind gust.14     16     12     13     14     16
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   1200   2800   4100   5400   5700
Mixing wind......NW 9   NW 5   W 6    W 9    W 15   W 21
LVORI...........4      3      2      1      1      1
ADI.............8      7      18     45     64     89
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
VRate mph-ft/1K.9      6      15     38     82     116

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 9 mph in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming northwest around
                    5 mph overnight becoming light.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 15 to 23 mph shifting to the north 6
                    to 13 mph late in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (91000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................90 early in the evening decreasing to 3 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........39     40     49     57     62     65
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      10     10
Temp............58     53     49     46     44     42
RH..............33     41     48     54     58     61
20 ft wind......W 9    NW 7   NW 5   NW 4   NW 5   NW 4
20 ft wind gust.14     12     7      6             5
Mix hgt (ft)....4600   2200   1900   1700   1400   1000
Mixing wind......W 23   NW 21  NW 15  NW 12  N 12   N 8
LVORI...........1      2      2      2      3      3
ADI.............90     14     10     8      8      5
Haines index....4      3      3      3      2      2
VRate mph-ft/1K.105    45     30     21     17     9

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph late in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 2 to 3 mph shifting to the west 5 to
                    10 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (47400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................2 early in the morning increasing to 44 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........64           67           72
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10           10           10
Temp............41           46           54
RH..............64           52           36
20 FT wind......NW 3G5       W 4G6        W 6G8
Mix hgt (ft)....1200         3900         5400
Mixing wind......N 3          W 5          W 9
LVORI...........3            2            1
ADI.............2            24           39
Haines index....2            3            4
VRate mph-ft/1K.5            20           50

$$
Forecaster...Perry
Requested by...Adam Christie
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410688.12/RNK
.DELDT 04/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Adam.christie@usda.gov