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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KSGF 221949
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
249 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Scattered shower and a few storms will occur on Tuesday
  afternoon and evening as a cold front moves south through the
  area. The highest precipitation chances will be across the
  eastern Ozarks with chances decreasing to the west. Not all
  locations will be affected by this activity.

- Shower and storm chances return Thursday and will continue at
  times through the weekend. There will be the potential for
  some strong to severe storms Friday into the weekend but
  confidence in details are still low.

- Above normal temperatures return this weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

An area of surface high pressure has moved south of the area
allowing the pressure gradient to tighten across the region
behind the high. As a result, southerly wind gusts of 20 to 30
mph will continue to occur into early this evening. Winds will
weaken slightly tonight but will become gusty again on Tuesday
morning. A dry air mass is in place across the area as afternoon
humidity values have dropped into the 20 to 30 percent range
this afternoon. Moisture will start to recover tonight into the
middle week limiting fire weather risk after today.

Highs this afternoon will top out in the middle 60s to near the
70 degree mark. Lows tonight into Tuesday morning will cool into
the middle 40s to the middle 50s as the warmer air mass moves
over the region. Highs Tuesday will warm into the upper 60s to
the middle 70s with some upper 70s readings possible across
southern Missouri.

An upper level trough will move across the northern Plains
tonight and then move southeast into the Great Lakes region on
Tuesday. A cold front will move south through the area Tuesday
afternoon and evening ahead of the trough. The better upper
level lift and support will remain northeast of the area and
instability will be on the weaker side. Some weak uncapped
elevated instability will likely be able to develop across
portions of southern Missouri and the eastern Ozarks Tuesday
afternoon and evening allowing for a few storms to occur. No
severe weather will occur. The better coverage with this
activity, still likely scattered in nature, will be across the
eastern Ozarks where the better lift will be. All locations will
not be affected by this activity and many locations will likely
remain dry especially across southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri.

The front will stall across Arkansas on Wednesday and much of
the area should remain dry through the day. An isolated light
rain shower cannot be ruled out across far southwestern Missouri
but most if not all locations should remain dry on Wednesday.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

An upper level trough will move onto the west coast on
Wednesday and will move east into the central Plains on Thursday
and will then lift northeast through Plains on Friday. Surface
low pressure will develop ahead of the trough and also lift
northeast across the plains. As this occurs the stalled front
across Arkansas will lift north as a warm front across the
region on Thursday. Scattered showers and storms will occur
along the front, with the best coverage likely across far
southwestern Missouri. All locations may not be affected by this
activity.

Moisture will continue to increase across the region behind the
warm front late this week. Instability will start to increase
across the area on Friday. As the upper level trough lifts
northeast on Friday a cold front will move east across Kansas
and Oklahoma. With the upper level trough moving northeast, the
front will stall across the Plains on Friday into Saturday.
With the front stalling, storms will move off the front and
move east. An unstable air mass will develop as Gulf moisture
returns to the region. The questions become what the coverage
and how far east the storms will move. If the storms form a cold
pool they could race east through the area Friday evening and
night. There will be the potential for strong to severe storms
with this activity, but questions remain in the coverage and
how far east the risk makes it on Friday night.

On Saturday the front will remain stalled across Kansas and
Oklahoma. Additional storms will likely form along the front and
move east. With the upper level trough moving off to the
northeast, a cap could develop across the area on Saturday.
Again if a cold pool can develop the storms may be able to make
it into portions of the area on Saturday but again questions
remain on coverage and how far east storms will be able to make
it, especially if a cap develops over the region. Strong to
severe storms will be possible again on Saturday across
portions of the area if storms can develop.

Another upper level trough will move across the region late this
weekend into early next week. There are still differences in
the ensemble members on the exact track, timing, and strength of
this upper level trough. The trough should move the front
through the region at some time from Sunday into Monday. Gulf
moisture will continue to advect into the area ahead of this
system and with height falls from the trough, instability
should increase and the cap weaken. Deep layer shear will also
increase with strong to severe storms once again possible, but
the details will be dependent on the exact track and timing of
the system.
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&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions will occur across the area this afternoon through
tonight. Gusty southerly winds will occur across the area this
afternoon into early this evening and again Tuesday morning. Low
level wind shear will be possible tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
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Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 26:
KSGF: 66/2016

April 27:
KSGF: 67/1899

April 28:
KSGF: 68/1896
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Wise