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285
FXUS63 KSGF 040839
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
339 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Thunderstorms will move in from the west this morning around
  5-7 AM. Some storms could be strong to severe, especially over
  far southwestern MO. Expect rain to dissipate around 7-9 PM.

- A Marginal Risk of severe weather has been issued over the
  area today and storms will be capable of quarter-sized hail
  and up to 60 mph winds with heavy rain.

- Widespread rainfall will occur on Sunday with localized
  flooding possible. Severe weather expected Monday night into
  Tuesday, especially for areas west of Hwy 65. SPC has those
  areas in a Slight Risk for severe weather on Monday.

- Unsettled weather will persist through much of the 7 day
  forecast. Rainfall during this period may be between 1 and 3
  inches which may lead to localized flooding.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Today: MCS moving through southern KS will make its way into MO
within the next couple of hours. MCS appears to be moving a little
bit faster than what the 00z CAMs expected. The storms will be at
their strongest as they cross over the KS/MO border. Our area is in
a Marginal Risk for severe weather today, so storms can be expected
to be strong to severe. Far southwestern MO will be the most
favorable environment for severe thunderstorms to occur this morning
with MUCAPE values of 1100-1300 J/kg and mid- level lapse rates
around 7-8 C/km. 0-6km shear will only be around 25-35 knots as this
system passes through. The MCS will weaken as it pushes further east
through MO into a less favorable environment.

Mostly cloudy skies will persist through the day and highs will be
in the 70s for most of the area with the exception of highs in the
lower 80s for southeast MO. Cold front moves through this afternoon
and a few CAMs hint at the front providing enough lift to create
some isolated thunderstorms this evening. Though, this will be
highly dependent on what convection does this morning and how
quickly it can push out of here in order for us to destabilize
this afternoon again before the front comes through. Kept 20-30%
POPs for areas mostly south of I-44 through the evening and
night as scattered showers are forecast to form ahead of another
MCS moving just to our south in OK overnight.

Sunday: Mid-level shortwave trough brings another MCS to the Plains.
This MCS is expected to bring more widespread rain to the area for
most of the day. SPC only has us in a general risk for severe
weather which means any thunderstorms that do develop, are expected
to remain sub-severe. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Rain finally begins to taper off Sunday night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A rather active pattern remains in the forecast for the next week
with multiple rounds of thunderstorms, some severe, and rainfall
through the end of next week.

Monday - Tuesday: A strongly negatively tilted upper trough will
move across the plains and swing a strongly forecast cold front
through the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. SPC has
already issued an Enhanced Risk over NE/KS/OK, with a Slight Risk
over our western counties mainly for areas west of highway 65. Also
worth noting, there is a hatched area (10% or greater probability of
significant severe weather) that includes our two western rows of
counties. This would include the Fort Scott down to Pittsburg, KS
area over to the Nevada down to Anderson areas.

The Ozarks will be in the warm sector ahead of this system with some
models indicating as much as 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE in advance of
the front with mid level (40-50kt) and upper level jet support. The
combination of instability and shear will bring the chance for
severe weather to the region as a result through Tuesday morning.
Once storms push through the region, a warm front will quickly
lift back to the north through the Ozarks as low pressure
develops in the plains.

Wednesday- Friday: Both the CSU/CIPS and SPC output continues the
potential for additional severe storms for the middle of next week.
The indications for Thursday and Friday are rather uncertain as the
multiple rounds of storms a changing upper level pattern limits rain
chances.

With the multiple days where rain is possible wide spread 1 to 3
inch rain amounts will be possible through the forecast period.
This may lead to at least localized flooding for areas that have
already seen ample rainfall.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

BBG has about a 20-40% chance of seeing lowered visibilities
overnight due to fog. Since confidence is on the low-medium
side, left fog out of the BBG TAFs, for now. Otherwise, VFR for
the next few hours with southeasterly winds before thunderstorms
move in this morning. Expect rain to start by late morning and
continue into the afternoon. Ceilings are forecast to drop to
MVFR once the cold front moves through and remain there for the
night. Winds will also shift to the north. Chance (20-30%) of
more widespread fog tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Over the past 7-10 days, most of the Ozarks has seen significant
rainfall with some locations receiving as much as a foot of
rain (Vernon and Bourbon(KS) Counties). With multiple rounds of
showers and storms forecast over the next 7 days, localized
flooding and additional rises on area rivers and streams will
be possible. Current forecasts are from from 1 to 3 inches with
local higher amounts of rainfall through the period.

Several area rivers remain elevated or above flood stage and
these will be monitored through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria
HYDROLOGY...Hatch