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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KSGF 161735
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1235 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe
  thunderstorms across the area at times this morning into early
  this evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
  risks.

- Windy conditions will develop today with southerly winds
  gusting up to 35-50 mph at times. The strongest winds will
  occur along and west of Highway 65 where dry air will also
  lead to significant fire danger.

- Additional thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into
  Thursday, with a few strong to severe storms possible possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Fire weather this afternoon and evening: Trended drier with dew
points/RH closer to HRRR values behind the dry line that will be
moving in from the west. This results in minRH of 15-25%
roughly along and west of a line from Table Rock Lake to
Springfield to Lake of the Ozarks. Issued a Red Flag Warning
given strong winds, but didn`t go as far east as the
aforementioned line since the dry air won`t get into the eastern
areas until later in the day as winds are diminishing.

Convection and severe potential:

The 12Z SGF sounding showed 300-400 J/kg of ML CIN, as expected,
which explains the lack of notable convective coverage so far
this morning. Inhibition is weaker over the west along and ahead
of the dry line and this will trend eastward with time. We plan
to release a 19Z special sounding to further assess conditions.
Could see some isolated severe potential along and ahead of the
dryline, but the greatest potential will be over the eastern CWA
this afternoon and evening. Even so, thunderstorm coverage is
expected to be limited. Good portions of the CWA may not even
see appreciable rainfall due to the limited coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The upper level low is located across western Kansas early this
morning with an area of surface low pressure located across
south central Nebraska. The upper level low will move northeast
across Kansas and Nebraska today before moving into Iowa this
evening. The surface low will track east across Nebraska also
moving into Iowa by this evening. As the surface low moves east,
the pressure gradient will tighten across the area allowing
gusty winds to develop across the region. The strongest winds
will impact locations across southeastern Kansas and west
central Missouri primarily west of Highway 65. Model momentum
transfer shows the potential for gusts up to 30 to 40 mph east
of Highway 65 with gusts up to 40 to 50 mph at times west of
Highway 65. Some localized gusts over 50 mph could be possible.
Issued a Wind Advisory for 9AM this morning through 7PM this
evening for locations generally along and west of Highway 65 and
along and north of Highway 60.

A cold front extends south from the surface low from south
central Nebraska into central Kansas. Storms have developed
along the front across north central Kansas into central
Nebraska early this morning. Additional storms have developed
ahead of the front across central Kansas early this evening.
This activity is likely elevated in nature. The area of
instability this activity is currently in will lift northeast
into northwestern Missouri early this morning. This activity
could clip the western portions of the area this morning,
bringing the risk for hail up to pennies. The cap should
increase to the east this morning, leading to the activity
weakening as it moves east of I-49.

Instability will redevelop from west to east across the area
later this morning into this afternoon as the cold front moves
east and as the upper level low lifts to the northeast across
the central Plains. The best instability will be north of the
area across Iowa into northern Missouri closer to the upper
level low. However, MLCAPE values of 700 to 1200 J/kg should be
able to develop across the area this afternoon and evening.
Scattered storms will develop and move east across the area as
the front moves east later this morning and especially this
afternoon ending from west to east early this evening. Deep
layer shear and instability should be able to support the
potential for a few strong to severe storms with hail up to the
size of golf balls possible with the strongest storms. Low level
wind shear will be on the weaker side through much of the day
but will start to increase across the eastern Ozarks by early
this evening as a low level jet develops. If storm cold pools
can congeal and line segments develop, there could be a low
risk for a brief spin up tornado in the line across the far
easterly portions of the area late this afternoon and evening.
Coverage in storms could be more limited across the area through
much of the afternoon, however coverage could start to increase
late this afternoon/early this evening over the far eastern
portions of the area. This activity will push east out of the
area early this evening.

The cold front will push from west to east across the area this
afternoon. Temperatures will not cool behind the front, however
a drier air mass will move into the area from west to east.
Afternoon humidity values of 25 to 35 percent will be possible
late this afternoon into early this evening generally along and
west of I-49. An elevated to significant fire weather risk will
be possible for areas along and west of I-49 this
afternoon/early this evening as the dry air mass combines with
gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The upper level low will continue to move off to the northeast
into the Great Lakes region on Wednesday, with the surface
front will stalling across Arkansas during the day. Only a
slightly cooler air mass will be over the area as highs warm
into the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

The ensemble model members then indicate that an upper level
trough will move across the northern Plains late this week and
will move south through the region this weekend. Surface low
pressure will develop across the central Plains on Wednesday
with the stalled front across Arkansas lifting back north
across the area as a warm front Wednesday evening and night.
Elevated instability should be able to develop along and north
of the front allowing the potential for scattered storms. There
could be the potential for a few strong storms with hail being
the main risk. The upper level low will then push a cold front
southeast through the region on Thursday. Scattered storms will
once again be possible along and behind the frontal passage.
Enough instability may be in place for a few strong to severe
storms with hail the main risk.

A cooler air mass will being to move into the area Thursday
afternoon behind the front into this weekend. Highs in the lower
60s are expected on Friday with highs in the upper 50s on
Saturday. Highs in the lower 60s will occur again on Sunday.
Lows in the upper 30s to the lower 40s are expected Sunday and
Monday mornings, with some locations across the eastern Ozarks
possibly cooling into the middle 30s each morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

May see some showers near KBBG and KSGF this afternoon, but
otherwise dry conditions are expected at all sites this TAF
period. Gusty southerly winds today will diminish tonight but
LLWS is expected tonight, mainly at KSGF and KBBG. Wednesday
will see breezy conditions under clear skies.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-
     101.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-066>068-
     077>079-088>090-094.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-
     077-078-088-089-093-094-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Titus
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Titus