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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KSGF 150557
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
Issued by National Weather Service Paducah KY
1257 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through early this week.
  Slightly below normal temperatures then return late this week
  into next weekend.

- Potential for scattered storms developing across portions of
  central Missouri Monday afternoon and evening. Overall
  confidence is low in these affecting our area, with better
  chances north.

- Severe thunderstorms possible across the area late Monday
  night and Tuesday. Stay tuned for updates.

- Gusty winds will occur Monday through Wednesday. Strongest
  winds will occur on Tuesday with south winds gusting up to
  40-50 mph at times.

- Additional chances for showers and a few storms return
  Thursday into Friday and could linger into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun Apr 14
2024

The region remained in the warm sector south of a warm front
located across eastern Kansas and northern Missouri today. This
was allowing southerly winds to bring warm and moist air into
the region. Afternoon temperatures were in the upper 70s and
lower 80s as a result of the warm air advecting into the Ozarks
and quiet weather.

An upper level ridge will slide over the area through tonight
with surface high pressure moving south along the eastern edge
of the ridge. This high pressure will work to force the warm
front southward and over the Ozarks by Monday morning or early
afternoon, depending on which model you believe. This will bring
another day of above normal temperatures to the region and will
help act as a focus and lifting mechanism for showers and storms
late Monday afternoon into the evening. This will occur as a
storm system moves out of the Rockies into the plains.

The better forcing and dynamic support for storms looks like it
will be best across the northern half of Missouri Monday but
much of the placement of storm development will depend on where
the warm front stalls.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM
CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The surface low will begin to move across the Plains, Monday
night into Tuesday. As this occurs, a dry line will move across
Kansas and Oklahoma into Monday evening. Storms are expected to
develop ahead of the dry line into Monday night. Models continue
to have the dry line or cold front west of the area through the
overnight hours, but clusters of storms may develop ahead of
the boundary.

Storms may then begin to move into the areas west of I-49 late
Monday night with the better chances occurring Tuesday morning.
These storms should be elevated in nature and there may be the
potential for marginally severe hail or a localized wind risk
with any bowing segments or with the strongest storms. This
will depend however, on whether the surface based cap can be
overcome. For the most part, models move the storms east of the
area by afternoon Tuesday.

The cold front is then expected to move into the region Tuesday
afternoon. The atmosphere is expected to recover during the
afternoon though the best instability still looks to be closer
to the surface low. However, some thunderstorms may move across
portions of the region north of Highway 54 that could be
supercellular but the petter potential across the Ozarks will be
in a region with slightly less instability but strong shear.
This could still work to produce storms with the potential of
large hail and damaging winds.

A slower middle level front (850mb) will lag behind the surface
front that will exit the region Tuesday evening. This may
provide the focus for lingering showers and storms into Tuesday
night. However, the airmass that will be moving into the region
during the day Tuesday looks to be rather dry. Additionally,
the surface pressure gradient will be tight thanks to the
proximity of the surface low. This combination will allow winds
to gust at times from 40 to 50 mph behind the front. Will need
to monitor for the potential for high wind products.

For the second half of the week, temperatures will be on a slow
slide with highs Wednesday in the middle 70s to highs on
Saturday in the upper 50s. Additionally, as the upper level
pattern shift to southwesterly, several chances for showers and
storms develop from Thursday night into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through the current TAF period.
South winds will pick up after sunrise. Thunderstorms are
possible late in the period but confidence too low for TAF
mention at the moment.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$


AVIATION...JGG