000
FXUS63 KSGF 150818
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
318 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue early this week. Slightly
  below normal temperatures return late this week into the
  weekend.

- Potential for scattered storms developing across portions of
  central Missouri this afternoon and evening. Overall
  confidence is low in these affecting our area, with better
  chances north.

- Severe thunderstorms possible across the area late tonight
  into Tuesday evening. Stay tuned for updates.

- Windy conditions will develop on Tuesday with south winds
  gusting up to 40-50 mph at times.

- Additional chances for showers and a few storms return
  Thursday into Friday and could linger into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

An upper level ridge is currently over the region along with a
warm air mass. A warm front is moving south across northern
Missouri early this morning and will stall across central
Missouri this morning into this afternoon before lifting back
to the northeast later this afternoon into this evening. Highs
will once again warm into the lower to middle 80s this
afternoon.

An upper level low is currently located across the southwest
CONUS early this morning. The low will move east today and will
move into the Central Plains this evening/tonight then will lift
northeast into Iowa on Tuesday. An area of surface low pressure
will move into western Nebraska this evening then move east
into Iowa by Tuesday evening.

A strong cap will be in place across much of the area today,
but some uncapped elevated instability will develop near the
warm front this afternoon and evening. The front will stall over
or just north of the northern portions of the area this
morning. As the surface low moves into the Plains the warm front
will start to lift back to the northeast. As the cap weakens
along the warm front, scattered storm development will likely
occur across portions of central Missouri on to the east. There
could be a few strong storms with hail as the main risk with
this activity. If the front does stall over the area, the window
for storms in our area will be small as the front lifts back to
the northeast. The better potential for these storms will be
just north/northeast of the area. A strong cap should limit
storm potential across the rest of the area through this
evening. Could see a few showers develop as strong lift occurs,
but the cap should limit the storm potential.

Tonight as the upper level and surface lows move east, a dry
line will move across Kansas and Oklahoma. Storms should develop
along the front later this evening into tonight across the
plains and start to move east. As the upper level low moves
east, height falls will start to weaken the cap from west to
east late tonight into Tuesday morning. The surface cap may
remain in place, so these storms may be elevated in nature. The
storms will likely move east into the far western portions of
the area late tonight after 4AM then move east across the area
through Tuesday morning. This activity could be in clusters and
the main risk will be hail up to the size of quarters with a few
of the strongest storms.

As the upper level low moves northeast into Iowa on Tuesday,
instability should recover. The strongest instability should
remain north of the area, but central Missouri could see 1000 to
1500 J/kg of MLCAPE develop. Further south across the rest of
the area instability will likely be weaker as 500 to 1000 J/kg
of MLCAPE will be possible. The cap should weaken as the upper
level low moves east and redevelopment of storms will occur
along the front. Supercells will be likely across northern
Missouri and could clip the northern portions of the area. Golf
ball size hail will be the main risk with these storms across
the northern portions of our forecast area. Further south,
there still remains questions regarding the coverage in storm
mode, seeing more clusters or line segments develop. The main
risk with this activity will be hail to the size of quarters and
damaging winds, however as the low level jet increases Tuesday
evening low level shear will also increase. As a result there
could be a localized brief tornado risk with any line segments
that can surge to the east this risk is overall low at this time.
This will likely be east of Highway 65 as the front will be
pushing east of the area during the afternoon and evening hours.
This activity should move east of the area Tuesday evening.
Scattered showers and a few storms could be possible Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning as the 850mb front moves through
the region.

Highs on Tuesday will warm into the middle 70s to the lower 80s.
The warmest temperatures will occur across southeastern Kansas
and western Missouri where the front will move through. A drier
air mass will move into the far western portions of the area
too. Gusty southerly winds will develop across the region on
Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens south of the surface
low. Wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph with some localized gusts up to
50 mph will be possible. The strongest winds will occur west of
Highway 65.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The upper level low will move off to the northeast on Wednesday.
Highs will warm into the middle 70s to the lower 80s Wednesday
afternoon. An upper trough will move east across the northern
Plains into the Great Lakes region late this week. The trough
will push a cold front south into the area late Thursday into
Friday. Highs will likely warm into the 70s to the lower 80s
Thursday south of the front, with highs in the upper 50s to the
lower 60s Friday through this weekend. The front will bring
some showers and maybe a few thunderstorms to the area at times
from Thursday afternoon into Friday. Some of the ensemble model
members show a secondary wave moving through bringing
additional shower chances to the area on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through the current TAF period.
South winds will pick up after sunrise. Thunderstorms are
possible late in the period but confidence too low for TAF
mention at the moment.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Record High Temperatures:

April 15:
KSGF: 87/1924
KJLN: 86/2006
KVIH: 84/1955
KUNO: 84/1967


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 15:
KSGF: 63/2006

April 16:
KSGF: 66/1963

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...JGG
CLIMATE...Wise