Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000 FXUS66 KSGX 262044 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 144 PM PDT Tue Mar 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak ridge will move over the southwestern part of the country, leading to our warmest day of the week. This will be short-lived as a strengthening low pressure system from the north moves into the area later this week. Out ahead of it, cooling will take place by Thursday and Friday with windier conditions for mountain and desert regions. The weekend looks like another wet one, where SoCal will be impacted by bouts of heavy rain and mountain snow. Drying will slowly occur by early next week as the system departs.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... Broad northwest flow aloft is maintaining a weak coastal eddy off the coast. This continues the partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area, where partial clearing can be expected through the afternoon. The marine layer will shrink slightly as a weak area of high pressure moves into the region by Wednesday, but low clouds and patchy fog will still move into coastal and western valley areas. Highs will range from the 50s/60s in the mountains, 60s/70s west of the mountains and high desert areas, and near 80 degrees in the lower deserts. Pressure falls will occur on Thursday and Friday as a potent area of low pressure from the Pacific Northwest moves further down the West Coast. This will bring cooling and windier conditions for the area. Gusty winds will occur across the mountains and deserts there is moderate to high confidence in wind gusts over 40 MPH for typical wind-prone mountain passes including the San Gorgonio Pass. Winds west of the mountains will not be as strong with gusts 15-25 MPH. Temperatures on Thursday will be slightly cooler on Thursday, and noticeably cooler on Friday.
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&& .LONG TERM (This Weekend into Early Next Week)...
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Taking a look at the latest model suite, probabilities increase for precipitation sometime on Friday evening or Saturday morning. The rain and mountain snow is coming, just a matter of exactly when this weekend. A shortwave off the main area of low pressure will intensify the low this weekend. Bouts of heavy rain and mountain snow above 6,000 feet are expected, with two main waves expected. Late Friday night into Saturday will see one round of heavier precipitation with another round expected on Sunday as the trough axis deepens and moves over SoCal. As it does so, it will be bringing in some colder air behind it, leading to the coolest day of the week to likely be on Sunday. Highs will stay only in the 30s and 40s across the mountains and struggle to get to 60 degrees west of the mountains. We will continue to look into the storm threat as cooler air aloft may be able to trigger isolated storm activity as with the passing area of low pressure. Snow levels are still somewhat uncertain, but northern areas above 6,000 feet will likely see the most significant totals. Snow levels will fall from 6,500 feet late Friday and Saturday to near 5,500-6,000 feet. Model cluster guidance becomes more widespread in solutions of the troughs departure, some leaving it linger in the area through later on Monday or Tuesday. Depending on how this shapes up will depend on when the cooler wetter weather will depart. NBM POPs look reasonable with lower elevations drying out by Monday afternoon. After this, drier and warmer weather looks to occur.
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&& .AVIATION...
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262030Z...Coasts/Valleys...Areas of SCT/BKN low clouds with bases 2500-4000 feet MSL and tops to 5000 feet will continue through 03Z Wed. Patchy BKN/OVC low clouds with bases 1700-2500 ft MSL will occur 05Z-17Z Wed, with generally SKC/SCT clouds Wed afternoon. Most vis will remain unrestricted below the clouds through Wed. Mountains...Local terrain obscurations in clouds will occur on the coastal slopes below 5000 feet MSL through 23Z. After 23Z, mostly clear skies with unrestricted VIS will prevail through Wed. Deserts...Mostly clear skies will continue through Wed. Westerly winds 20-30 kt on desert slopes and locally into adjacent deserts will occur at times through 08Z Wed, with MOD up/downdrafts and local VIS 3-5 miles in BLDU.
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&& .MARINE...
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West to northwest winds late Thursday and Thursday night and southerly winds Saturday could gust over 20 knots. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday.
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&& .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE...Maxwell

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