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000
FXUS64 KSHV 142313
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
613 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

As expected, the cu field has been stubborn to scatter out over NE
TX/SE OK/SW AR/extreme NW LA this afternoon, in response to low
level theta-e ridging that persists beneath the steep capping
inversion evident on the 12Z KSHV raob. Where this ridging is
weakest, drier air aloft has been able to mix through the bndry
lyr allowing the morning cigs to scatter out considerably from
Deep E TX into NCntrl LA/Scntrl AR. May see these cigs across the
Wrn half of the CWA scatter out eventually by late afternoon/early
evening, only to return in the form of low stratus after 06Z
Monday within a 20-25kt SSWrly low level flow. As a result, even
milder and more humid conditions are expected overnight, with the
resultant cigs holding temps in the lower/mid 60s.

Very warm and humid conditions will return by afternoon Monday
with the morning cigs expected to eventually scatter out. In fact,
the large closed low depicted on the afternoon water vapor imagery
over CA and the Great Basin remains progged to drift E into the
Four Corners Region Monday, and will help to amplify ridging aloft
now easing into the Srn Plains into the Ozarks/Mid and Lower MS
Valley Monday afternoon. Should also see a considerable increase
in AC/cirrus cigs spilling atop the ridge Monday, with the warmest
temps expected to be over Lower E TX/N LA which will see greater
subsidence beneath the ridge. While dry conditions will persist
again Monday, stronger forcing associated with the low as it
begins to eject NE through the TX Panhandle should help focus
scattered severe convection by mid and late afternoon in VC of the
dryline, which should shift ENE across N TX/Srn and Ern OK during
the evening. While steeper lapse rates and greater sfc based
instability will remain focused over this area, these storms
should gradually weaken as they shift farther E into SE
OK/portions of extreme NE TX by mid and late evening, as overall
forcing weakens and instability gradually wanes. Did maintain low
to mid chance pops NW of the I-30 corridor Monday evening/night,
as convection will likely become more mesoscale based as it
outruns the dryline during the evening.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Convection to start the period Tuesday may be more focused along
any remnant mesoscale bndrys from the convection Monday night,
although the dryline should mix farther E during the day Tuesday
into Ern OK and possibly to the I-35 corridor of the DFW
Metroplex, tailing SW into the Wrn sections of the TX Hill
Country. This bndry and associated forcing along with the NE
ejecting closed low and attendant trough should focus the
potential for scattered convection through the afternoon/early
evening Tuesday. However, mean moisture is not particularly deep,
but adequate enough given the forcing and increasing
instability/shear to allow for the potential for scattered strong
to severe storms mainly focused over the existing SPC Day 4 Slight
Risk area over the NW half of the region. One thing that was noted
though is that the progs are not suggesting much on the way of
height falls over the region with the ejecting trough axis, with
the better forcing shifts farther NE away from the region during
the evening. Did scale down the higher NBM pops as convection
certainly is not a given, but did retain likely pops for SE OK/Nrn
sections of SW AR where the better forcing with the trough axis
will reside.

The air mass will be quite humid in wake of this system as low
level moisture pooling will be underway as the remnants of the dry
line becomes stationary just to our NW. In fact, min temps Tuesday
night will not fall much below 70 degrees (if at all), and will
get a head start on heating as afternoon temps climb into the mid
and possibly upper 80s. Heating may be even more enhanced from
compressional warming as the front may drift S into extreme NE
TX/Srn AR Wednesday afternoon. The front should eventually return
back N as a warm front Wednesday night (per the ECMWF) or Thursday
(GFS), with strong heating and available moisture potentially
contributing to isolated diurnal convection with the approach of a
weak shortwave trough from the W as max temps climb well into the
80s.

The remainder of the forecast is uncertain, as it relates to the
next potential cold front that had previously been advertised to
move through the region late this week. The various ensembles
suggest that a portion of this cooler air will spill S into the
region by Saturday, although some of the deterministic guidance
(namely the ECMWF) suggest that it will be delayed another day as
any significant troughing looks to remain well N of the area.
Regardless, the slow moving front should help focus an increase in
scattered convection Friday night through next weekend assuming
it is able to seep this far S through the region.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR this evening with MVFR arriving
after midnight for KLFK, and other terminals by 09-12Z, some brief
IFR possible. Cigs will slowly scatter and lift to VFR during the
early afternoon. Approaching upper low will keep gusty S/SW into
Tuesday with more IFR/MVFR cigs and convection possible early in
the day and all day with a shift to W/SW and keeping the humidity
for a while yet this week. Fropa may not be until late next wknd.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  85  68  83 /   0   0  10  30
MLU  62  84  66  85 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  63  79  63  78 /   0  10  30  60
TXK  64  82  66  79 /   0  10  10  50
ELD  61  83  64  81 /   0   0   0  40
TYR  66  83  67  81 /   0   0  20  40
GGG  65  84  67  81 /   0   0  10  40
LFK  65  85  67  84 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...24