-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
587
FXUS64 KSHV 091949
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
249 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Active weather will continue in the next 18-24 hours before a
brief reprieve arrives over the weekend across the Four State
Region. This is due to the stationary front draped across north
Texas into north Louisiana that will focus a corridor of ample
ingredients for severe thunderstorms. By this evening, high-
resolution guidance continues to suggest clusters of convection
with predominant large hail potential (mostly west of I-49) that
congeals into an MCS with predominant damaging wind potential
(mostly east of I-49). The trough and attendant frontal boundary
will shift eastward by Friday morning, introducing slightly cooler
and drier conditions (temperatures maximums/minimums in the
80s/60s) with northerly winds. /16/
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&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A brief break in active weather will come to an end as the next
workweek begins across the Four State Region. This is due to a
quasi-zonal synoptic pattern augmented by a series of slower
troughs and faster embedded shortwaves across northern Mexico and
the Southern Plains. The first of these disturbances will arrive
to instigate widespread convection as early as late Sunday into
early Monday, while the next disturbance in the parade will arrive
as early as Wednesday to keep precipitation chances going through
most of the rest of the week. Day 1-7 QPF values of widespread 3+
inch totals are expected with isolated higher amounts possible as
a result. Otherwise, temperature maximums/minimums in the 80s/60s
will gradually return above normal (maximums approaching 90 once
again) after the middle of next week. /16/
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

For the 09/18Z TAFs, IFR to MVFR CIGs prevail across area
terminals and will struggle to recover significantly through the
remainder of the afternoon. Conditions will deteriorate from west
to east by the late afternoon and early evening hours as a complex
of strong thunderstorms moves out of east Texas and into Louisiana
and Arkansas, parallel to the Interstate 20 corridor. Destructive
winds as high as 75 mph will be possible with these storms, as
well as damaging large hail and possibly a tornado or two. This
will be a fast-moving complex and should depart the area quickly
during the overnight and pre-dawn hours, with a return to VFR
conditions to follow. Winds will be variable through the afternoon
and evening before becoming northeasterly and northerly behind
this evening`s storms, continuing through the end of this
forecast period at sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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SHV  90  67  84  62 /  30  50   0   0
MLU  91  66  83  59 /  30  70   0   0
DEQ  85  59  80  54 /  30  20   0   0
TXK  88  62  83  58 /  40  30   0   0
ELD  87  61  81  56 /  30  40   0   0
TYR  87  65  83  61 /  40  50   0   0
GGG  88  65  83  61 /  30  50   0   0
LFK  91  67  85  64 /  20  50   0  10
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&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...26