Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000 FXUS64 KSHV 250525 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1225 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 No update is needed to the afternoon forecast package at this time. /44/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Starting to see some breaks in the clouds for mainly the northern portion of our forecast area this afternoon. A deep upper-level low currently resides over the Colorado/New Mexico border with a number of shortwave troughs embedded within. At the surface, lee- side cyclogenesis continues to deepen near the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. This will allow for a tighter pressure gradient across our area later this afternoon, resulting in some increasing southeast winds. We are already seeing this across portions of northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma early this afternoon. This will also allow for an increase in low-level warm air advection today. A leading shortwave trough will begin to enter our far northwest zones by around midnight tonight. This will bring with it a line of what should be sub-severe thunderstorms into early Monday morning from east central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Ahead of this line, low-level moisture will quickly return to the area with 60 degree dewpoints moving northward during the late morning hours. While instability will not be anything to write home about on Monday with MUCAPE values around 1000 J/Kg, we will have some very strong deep layer bulk sheer values and strong low level directional shear. This will help support the ongoing line of thunderstorms that will move through the rest of the area late morning and into Monday afternoon. Because the line will begin sub-severe across our northwest zones, a Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms is in place for along and northwest of a line from near Lufkin, TX to Marshall, TX to Texarkana and then into central Arkansas. To the southeast of this line there is a Slight Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms. This afternoon an Enhanced Risk was introduced for portions of eastern Louisiana, mainly along and east of a line from Alexandria, LA to Farmerville, LA. The main threat for tomorrow will mainly be strong wind gusts along the line as it moves through the area with a chance for some embedded QLCS tornado development. Once the storms reach the Enhanced Risk area, this threat will continue to increase where we could see some strong tornadoes and even some stronger wind gusts. The line should move east of the area by Monday evening. As the leading shortwave trough moves out of the area, the associated cold front will linger well behind the trough, and should move through Monday night into Tuesday morning. /33/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 More seasonable conditions will be in place for the area on Tuesday with highs ranging from the mid 50s across our northern zones to around 70 degrees across our far southeast zones. There remains a small chance for some showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night if we can get enough forcing and saturation. Not super confident that this will happen so ran with NBM output as models have backed off on this some. Upper ridging will dominate across the area for Thursday through at least Sunday as things sit right now with our next system after the 7 day outlook timeframe. /33/ && .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 For 25/06z TAFS...A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions at the terminals. But as southerly winds continue to gradually strengthen and increase in speed, more low-level moisture and lower ceilings will move into the area. MVFR ceilings are anticipated at all TAF sites by 25/09z. A line of strong, possibly severe, thunderstorms will likely enter Southeast Oklahoma and western portions of East Texas near or just before 25/12z ahead of a cold front. This line will advance through the region during the daytime hours Monday. In addition to the storms, windy conditions are likely across much of the Four State Region overnight and ahead of the line. Expect sustained wind speeds of 15 to 25 kts with occasional gusts near 35 kts. We should see clearing skies in wake of the line, with the cold front moving into KTYR/KGGG/KTXK at the end of the period. /20/
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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SHV 47 65 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 51 67 42 65 / 40 0 0 0 DEQ 37 58 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 42 59 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 44 63 37 64 / 20 0 0 0 TYR 42 61 42 65 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 44 63 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 47 68 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
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&& .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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AR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...None. TX...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-112-126-138-151-153-166-167.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...20

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