Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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000
FXUS64 KSHV 250525
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1225 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
No update is needed to the afternoon forecast package at this
time.
/44/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Starting to see some breaks in the clouds for mainly the northern
portion of our forecast area this afternoon. A deep upper-level
low currently resides over the Colorado/New Mexico border with a
number of shortwave troughs embedded within. At the surface, lee-
side cyclogenesis continues to deepen near the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles. This will allow for a tighter pressure gradient across
our area later this afternoon, resulting in some increasing
southeast winds. We are already seeing this across portions of
northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma early this afternoon. This
will also allow for an increase in low-level warm air advection
today.
A leading shortwave trough will begin to enter our far northwest
zones by around midnight tonight. This will bring with it a line
of what should be sub-severe thunderstorms into early Monday
morning from east central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Ahead of
this line, low-level moisture will quickly return to the area with
60 degree dewpoints moving northward during the late morning
hours. While instability will not be anything to write home about
on Monday with MUCAPE values around 1000 J/Kg, we will have some
very strong deep layer bulk sheer values and strong low level
directional shear. This will help support the ongoing line of
thunderstorms that will move through the rest of the area late
morning and into Monday afternoon.
Because the line will begin sub-severe across our northwest zones,
a Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms is in place for along
and northwest of a line from near Lufkin, TX to Marshall, TX to
Texarkana and then into central Arkansas. To the southeast of this
line there is a Slight Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms.
This afternoon an Enhanced Risk was introduced for portions of
eastern Louisiana, mainly along and east of a line from
Alexandria, LA to Farmerville, LA. The main threat for tomorrow
will mainly be strong wind gusts along the line as it moves
through the area with a chance for some embedded QLCS tornado
development. Once the storms reach the Enhanced Risk area, this
threat will continue to increase where we could see some strong
tornadoes and even some stronger wind gusts. The line should move
east of the area by Monday evening. As the leading shortwave
trough moves out of the area, the associated cold front will
linger well behind the trough, and should move through Monday
night into Tuesday morning. /33/
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.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
More seasonable conditions will be in place for the area on
Tuesday with highs ranging from the mid 50s across our northern
zones to around 70 degrees across our far southeast zones. There
remains a small chance for some showers and thunderstorms late
Wednesday night if we can get enough forcing and saturation. Not
super confident that this will happen so ran with NBM output as
models have backed off on this some. Upper ridging will dominate
across the area for Thursday through at least Sunday as things sit
right now with our next system after the 7 day outlook timeframe.
/33/
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.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
For 25/06z TAFS...A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions at the terminals.
But as southerly winds continue to gradually strengthen and
increase in speed, more low-level moisture and lower ceilings will
move into the area. MVFR ceilings are anticipated at all TAF
sites by 25/09z. A line of strong, possibly severe, thunderstorms
will likely enter Southeast Oklahoma and western portions of East
Texas near or just before 25/12z ahead of a cold front. This line
will advance through the region during the daytime hours Monday.
In addition to the storms, windy conditions are likely across much
of the Four State Region overnight and ahead of the line. Expect
sustained wind speeds of 15 to 25 kts with occasional gusts near
35 kts. We should see clearing skies in wake of the line, with the
cold front moving into KTYR/KGGG/KTXK at the end of the period.
/20/-- End Changed Discussion --
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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SHV 47 65 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 51 67 42 65 / 40 0 0 0
DEQ 37 58 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 42 59 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 44 63 37 64 / 20 0 0 0
TYR 42 61 42 65 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 44 63 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 47 68 45 69 / 0 0 0 0-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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AR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...None.
TX...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ097-112-126-138-151-153-166-167.-- End Changed Discussion --
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$$
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...20