Text Products for AFD Issued by SHV

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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FXUS64 KSHV 111932
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
232 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

This evening will find clear skies abounding over the ArkLaTex, with
little interruption to that pattern for the next several days. The
upper level trough responsible for the unsettled pattern which
defined the first half of this week will be well on its way to the
east, moving up the Appalachians, while a large upper level ridge
builds in over the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains,
progressing east over the Great Plains through the course of the
day Friday.

Unobstructed clear skies and winds beginning to taper off will make
for abundant radiational cooling, with overnight lows looking to
fall into the mid to upper 40s south and lower 40s north with a few
upper 30s possible. Increasing effects of the ridge as its axis
advances eastward will noticeably continue this afternoon`s
warming trend, as Friday`s highs climb into the upper 70s across
the Four State Region, with a few sites reaching 80 degrees before
dropping back into the upper 40s and lower 50s by daybreak
Saturday while areas of clouds build in from the west overnight.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

As the weekend dawns, the  upper level ridge axis will be positioned
over the ArkLaTex, making for another few days of quiet and dry
conditions for the Four State Region. The warming trend associated
with the ridge will see highs soaring into the low to mid 80s during
the afternoon hours, with lows likewise climbing from the 40s into
the 50s and 60s.

A large developing upper level low will advance onshore and into the
western CONUS late in the weekend, with its attendant upper level
trough commencing its eastward journey by the start of the week.
The ArkLaTex will be in the transition period between upper level
features as the week begins, with southwest flow funneling
moisture into the region, providing ample fuel for the return of
showers and storms as soon as Monday afternoon, although some
uncertainty remains regarding exact timing. As of this writing,
it looks like central Oklahoma and north central Texas will see
severe storms Monday and Monday night, but the extent to which
impacts affect the ArkLaTex remains to be seen. If the low treks
more north by east as the latest GFS indicates, severe impacts
may pass us by to the north. This will, as always, bear careful
examination in the coming days.

This return to an unsettled pattern looks to generally continue
through to the end of this extended forecast period, with areas of
discernible PoPs present throughout with few interruptions, and
brief ones at that, particularly for zones along and north of the I-
20 corridor as the week continues. Temperatures look to remain warm
throughout, with most of the region in the mid 80s and some sites
pushing into the upper 80s by the middle of next week, with lows in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

/26/


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

For the 11/18z TAFS...VFR and SKC skies across the region. Gusty
NW winds will diminish over the period, eventually becoming
light/variable by daybreak. Expect light southerly winds and high
cirrus to return by the end of the period across East Texas. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  48  80  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  77  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  39  76  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  44  77  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  76  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  48  78  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  46  78  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  47  80  52  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...20
National Weather Service National Headquarters
