660
FXUS64 KSHV 290528
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1228 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Parameters are starting to come together for strong to severe
storms this afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. So far
today we have been relatively quiet, as outflow boundaries from
convection west of the region may have stabilized our area.
However, we have started to see some popcorn convection develop
across the area with daytime heating. Just west of us, very strong
to severe storms have developed between Temple and Mexia Texas
along a remnant boundary. Short-term progs have these storms
holding together and moving northeastward into the western half of
the region over the next couple of hours. The Storm Prediction
Center has issued Tornado Watch 158 for all of our East Texas
counties along and south of Interstate 20 through 9 pm to account
for these storms. Can`t rule out additional watches down stream as
convection pushes eastward into our Louisiana zones after 9 pm.
Again, all modes of severe will be in play, including flash
flooding.

The convection is expected to push through the area overnight and
should be out of our warning area near lunch time Monday just
ahead of a cool front. Can`t rule out some additional convection
early Monday afternoon along that front, followed by quiet
conditions. Not expecting a huge change in temperatures behind the
front, but northerly winds should bring in a slightly cooler and
drier airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Quiet conditions will be short-lived as rain chances are expected
to return by Tuesday afternoon. Zonal flow will become established
over the region Tuesday, with several short-wave disturbances
expected to move through the flow. The upper flow will transition
to more southwesterly by mid-week, with rain chances continuing,
as disturbances continue to move across the flow over the region.
Eventually, another long-wave trough will shift out of the Rockies
into the Plains, eventually dragging another cold front into the
region on Friday. This front should clear the precip out of the
region for next weekend, but not before bringing us more
convection. Can`t rule out additional severe weather during the
upcoming week of unsettled weather, along with excessive rainfall
and additional hydro issues on area waterways. Seasonal temps
look to return by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

For the 29/06Z TAFs, the line of showers and strong storms is
continuing to progress slowly east across the ArkLaTex. TXK, TYR
and GGG should see RA coming to and end within the next few hours.
TSRA will continue to impact terminals east, gradually ending
towards dawn or the morning hours for our furthest southeast
airspace. MVFR CIGs look to descend to IFR levels towards dawn
behind the departing storms before finally climbing back to VFR
heights and clearing during the afternoon. South winds will become
variable and lighter behind the storms overnight, eventually
becoming more westerly and northwesterly tomorrow as a surface
boundary passes through the region. Gusts of up to 25 kts will be
possible early in the forecast period but will quickly drop off
behind the departing storms.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  65  85  68 /  40  10  20  10
MLU  76  63  84  63 /  80  20  20  10
DEQ  81  58  83  62 /  10   0  10  10
TXK  82  62  84  65 /  20   0  10  10
ELD  78  60  85  61 /  70  10  10  10
TYR  83  64  84  67 /  10   0  20  10
GGG  83  63  84  67 /  10   0  20  10
LFK  85  65  85  68 /  30  10  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-
     136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...26