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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KSJT 180525
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1225 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Early this afternoon, a dryline was situated across western
portions of the forecast area. Dewpoints ahead of the dryline are
in the mid and upper 60s, with temperatures in the mid and upper
80s, with a few readings in the lower 90s. Isolated thunderstorms
may develop east of the dryline late this afternoon and early
evening. If storms do develop, they could possibly become strong
to severe, with a localized hail/wind threat. The HRRR has been
consistent in generating isolated convection primarily across the
Concho Valley by late afternoon/early evening. Will maintain 20
POPS generally east of a Coleman to Sonora line to account for
this potential. For the rest of tonight, expect low clouds to
develop late tonight across southern sections, which will linger
into the mid/late morning hours Thursday. Winds will remain light
overnight, with mild overnight lows in the mid and upper 60s.

For tomorrow, a surface cold front will enter the Big Country
around noon. The front is forecast to progress slowly south into
portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland counties by late
afternoon, with the dryline extending south across western
portions of the Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau.
Moderate to strong instability is expected by peak heating, with
SBCAPE`s in excess of 3000 J/Kg, along with deep layer shear
around 30 kts. Thunderstorm development is possible from the
Concho Valley and Heartland southward tomorrow afternoon into the
evening hours. Any storms that develop will have the potential to
become severe, with large hail and damaging winds the main
hazards. Temperatures will be well above normal tomorrow, with
highs ranging from the upper 80s and lower 90s across the Big
Country prior to frontal passage, to the mid and upper 90s across
central and southern sections.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The main focus for the long term will continue to be the
potential for a widespread soaking rainfall event over the
weekend. Friday will be mostly dry with weak shortwave ridging
overhead. That will be begin to chance, however, as we head into
the weekend. Multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move
overhead beginning Friday night and continuing into Saturday. This
will provide increasing large scale forcing for ascent. With a
very moist airmass in place (precipitable water values in excess
of 1.5 inches) and the stalled frontal boundary serving as a
surface focus, multiple rounds of moderate to at times heavy
rainfall is expected. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be
possible on Saturday although the severe potential is very low at
this time. WPC does have most of the area under a slight risk for
excessive rainfall on Saturday. While widespread flooding is not
anticipated, some very localized flooding is possible where heavy
rain does fall especially in low lying urban areas. Otherwise,
most of the area should pick up some very beneficial rains which
is certainly welcome given the recent dry conditions. Rain chances
will peak Saturday afternoon and taper off by Sunday morning as
the shortwave trough moves off to the east of the area and upper
level ridging builds in from the west. The remainder of the long
term forecast looks mainly dry at this time.

Temperatures will be much cooler this weekend especially on
Saturday with the expected showers and storms and mostly cloudy
skies. Have undercut the NBM by several degrees for both Friday
and Saturday, with highs only in the 50s and 60s for much of the
area on Saturday. Temperatures will gradually moderate back into
the 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

MVFR cigs developing and moving northwest across West Central
Texas terminals early this morning and these clouds should spread
across much more of the area before sunrise. The clouds should
break by mid morning with VFR conditions for the rest of the
afternoon. Next weather maker will be a strong cold front moving
through the area this afternoon and evening, with gusty north and
northeast winds in its wake. Some of the latest CAMs are showing
isolated to scattered storms developing this evening near the
southeast terminals after 00Z. Have mentioned in the terminal
forecast but will need to fine tune the timing as we get into
later forecasts.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Abilene     53  69  54  61 /  10  10  70 100
San Angelo  59  78  59  70 /  10  20  60  90
Junction    64  83  62  77 /  30  20  50  80
Brownwood   57  72  58  67 /  20  10  60  90
Sweetwater  53  67  53  59 /  10  10  70 100
Ozona       62  80  61  72 /  20  30  60  90
Brady       61  76  61  71 /  30  10  50  90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...07